You can tell when the weather pattern starts to switch into spring mode, not because we necessarily see warmer weather, but because the weather models have a tough time with medium-range forecasts.
We saw this in the last forecast. Confidence was low and it looked as though we would be stuck between the two main storm tracks, with any deviation resulting in either warm weather or cold weather. We ended up seeing both but without any significant storm systems. The models keep developing them, but so far, they remain to our south.
Two main questions for this forecast period: will we get a big spring snowstorm? And when will warm spring-like temperatures start to move in?
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The short answers: it doesn’t look like we will see any significant snow over the next two weeks, but it also looks like the melt will not begin either.
This forecast period looks to start with a large area of arctic high pressure slowly sliding down from the north. This will bring sunny skies with moderate winds Wednesday. These winds should be light by Thursday or Friday as the centre of the high drifts over us.
Temperatures will be on the cool side, with daytime highs in the -10 to -14 C range and overnight lows falling to around -22 C.
The sunny but cool weather looks like it will continue into the weekend, but under the increasingly strong early spring sunshine, temperatures will moderate by three or four degrees. The models show a storm system pushing eastward across the northern U.S. late in the weekend and into the early part of the week of March 13.
It looks like arctic air in place over our region will once again keep the storm to our south. As usual, we need to keep an eye on these systems.
Further ahead, more arctic air is poised to slide southward later in the week, keeping temperatures near the bottom end of the usual range for this time of the year.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -11 to +1 C; lows, -24 to -8 C.
