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Forecast: Stormy pattern trying to develop

Issued November 28, 2016 – Covering the period from November 30 to December 7, 2016

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Published: December 1, 2016

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Precipitation data for the Prairies is still running late. This image shows the departures from the 1981-2010 average for sea ice extent in millions of square kilometres across the Arctic (blue), Antarctic (green) and combined Arctic and Antarctic (orange) for the year 2016, up to Nov. 17. Total global sea ice extent is more than 4.2 million square km below average.

Once again the weather models got the general pattern correct, but as usual, the weather is in the details. Last week’s weather models showed another Colorado low developing and tracking south of us during the first half of the week. Fast-forward a few days and now that same Colorado low is expected to spin out and stall somewhere over southern North Dakota. This once again puts me at a bit of a disadvantage in trying to figure out the rest of the weather forecast.

Just like last week, this forecast period is starting with a system that should bring us a whole bunch of snow, but, just like the last system, this one is lacking cold air. By the time you read this it looks like western parts of Manitoba will have received between 10 and 20 cm of snow, while eastern regions will likely only see a couple of centimetres, as most of their precipitation will fall as rain.

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Colder, or rather, seasonable high pressure will build in starting on Friday as a weak high pressure tries to take hold. Several weak systems are forecast to travel though our region over the weekend, with the timing of these systems controlling the amount of cloud cover. Little snowfall is expected with these systems.

The next best chance for snow is next Monday into Tuesday, as an area of low pressure ripples across the southern Prairies. For those of you hoping for icy cold temperatures to move in, there is some hint of -18 C overnight lows late next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -14 to 0 C; lows, -24 to -9 C.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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