For those of you who closely follow the weather and forecasting, you know that small changes early in the forecast period are often amplified later. Last week’s forecast was a perfect example of this. The arctic high that brought the cool weather last week also helped to protect us from a large Colorado low that
Forecast: It’s feeling more like spring
Issued April 15, 2019: Covering the period from April 17 to April 24
A look at different types of precipitation
Cold clouds dominate Prairie weather for most of the year — Part 1 of a series
With the mixed bag of precipitation that can typically occur during the spring across the Prairies, I thought it might be time to go back and visit the topic of precipitation and just how precipitation forms. Using a simplistic view, there are two types of clouds: cold and warm. A warm cloud is any cloud
Forecast: Seasonable but unsettled weather
Issued April 8, 2019: Covering the period from April 10 to April 17
Last week’s forecast called for a shift in the large-scale weather pattern, and while we did see a shift, it didn’t shift exactly as forecast. While the large low over northeastern Canada did shift eastward and weaken, it was replaced by an area of arctic high pressure that has been helping to keep the really
Forecast: Spring melt to begin in earnest
Issued April 1, 2019: Covering the period from April 3 to April 9
Surprisingly, last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the models had forecast. The biggest difference was in the overnight lows, which tended to be a little warmer than forecast. While the cooler-than-average temperatures might not have been what everyone wanted, they did create nearly perfect conditions for a nice slow melt. It is
Flood outlook may improve under slow spring melt
The risk of significant spring flooding isn’t that high, except for the Red River Valley
As we discussed in my previous article, if you want warm spring temperatures you need to have snow-free ground. While there was plenty of warm air moving into our region last week, the widespread snow cover kept things a little cooler than anticipated. That said, with all the snow cover and the cold ground, I
Forecast: Expect the slow melt to continue
Issued March 25, 2019: Covering the period from March 27 to April 6
Have I ever mentioned how difficult it can be to create weather forecasts in the spring and fall, never mind trying to create a week-long forecast three days ahead of time? The yearly springtime battle between cold and warm air simply makes for a rough, frustrating time in the weather forecasting department. This battle played
Reflections on albedo and spring melt
If there’s still a lot of snow around, really warm temperatures are hard to come by
As we begin the transition into spring, one topic that often comes up is, “When will it really get warm?” Most of us know that if there is snow on the ground, it can be difficult to experience really warm temperatures. This is a result of two different factors: the natural cooling effect of snow
Forecast: Warm with a chance of rain
Issued March 18, 2019: Covering the period from March 20 to March 27
With the official beginning of astronomical spring, it looks more and more like we’ll finally see some of the above-average temperatures the weather models have been predicting for nearly a month now. While this might be good news for some, it might be a concern for those worrying about spring flooding. Before we dive into
How we dodged a weather bullet
Did anyone really want a huge dump of snow just before the spring melt gets underway?
For a while last week, it was looking like our worst spring fears were going to come true as two large and fairly powerful Colorado lows were predicted to hit southern Manitoba. If you follow any of the forecast models, were listening to CBC or read the Prairie weather discussion, then you too might have
Forecast: Manitoba’s spring melt slowly begins
Issued March 11, 2019: Covering the period from March 13 to March 20
As we begin to transition from winter to spring it’s not unusual for the accuracy of the forecasts to take a bit of a hit. We saw that in the last forecast as the weekend storm system that looked to stay well south of us took a much more northerly track, bringing measurable snow to