Last week’s forecast called for a shift in the large-scale weather pattern, and while we did see a shift, it didn’t shift exactly as forecast. While the large low over northeastern Canada did shift eastward and weaken, it was replaced by an area of arctic high pressure that has been helping to keep the really warm spring air from making it into our province.
For this forecast period it looks like the northern area of high pressure will dominate, at least for the first half. This high will help to keep us mostly dry as it blocks the northward movement of any storm systems tracking by to our south. Being on the southern edge of this high we should see sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs around +5 C and overnight lows in the -5 C range. These near- to slightly below-average temperatures look to moderate next weekend as the arctic high weakens.
This will allow an unorganized area of low pressure to begin pushing in from the west, bringing increasing clouds along with the chance of showers. High temperatures are forecast to be around 10 C with overnight lows around +2 C. Areas that get a little more sunshine than cloud will be a little warmer, while those areas that end up seeing some showers will likely be a little cooler.
This unsettled pattern is forecast to continue into next week as the western low re-forms to our southwest and then moves east or northeast during the week. Most of the precipitation from this low is currently forecast to remain to our south, but it will have to be watched. A northward shift of a few hundred kilometres could bring significant rain to our region around the middle of the week. The latest prediction by the weather models shows our region seeing a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of showers every day. The clouds and scattered precipitation will help to keep temperatures a little cooler, with daytime highs forecast to continue to be in the 7 to 10 C range and overnight lows within a few degrees of 0 C.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +2 to +14 C; lows, -9 to +2 C.