Forecast: It’s feeling more like spring

Issued April 15, 2019: Covering the period from April 17 to April 24

Sometimes Mother Nature serves up perfect textbook examples of weather phenomena. This week’s weather image is of the storm system that just grazed southeastern Manitoba late last week. It brought snow, blizzards and even thunder-blizzard conditions to a good portion of North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota. The satellite image was taken April 10 and shows the mature storm centred on the South Dakota/Nebraska border. I took the liberty to draw in the centre of the low (L), along with the cold front stretching all the way down to the Gulf Coast (blue line) and the warm front extending eastward across the Great Lakes (red line).

For those of you who closely follow the weather and forecasting, you know that small changes early in the forecast period are often amplified later. Last week’s forecast was a perfect example of this. The arctic high that brought the cool weather last week also helped to protect us from a large Colorado low that produced all sorts of nasty weather to our south. This low was stronger and slower moving than originally forecast, which in turn slowed and influenced the behaviour of other weather systems. For example, the area of low pressure forecast to bring showers last weekend was slowed and did not impact our region until early this week. Isn’t forecasting fun?!

For this forecast period it looks as though it will finally begin to consistently feel like spring as mild and relatively dry weather looks to take hold. The forecast period begins with a weak area of high pressure filling in behind the low that departed early in the week. This high will bring us sunshine and mild temperatures, with daytime highs forecasted to be in the 10 to 14 C range and overnight lows right around 0 C. This high also looks as if it will protect us from another storm system forecast to track by to our south around mid-week.

Over the weekend, the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking by to our north. The counter-clockwise flow around the low will help to pull nice mild air into our region starting on Friday, with daytime highs pushing into the mid- to upper teens. Clouds and showers will move into southern and central regions sometime on Saturday as the southern end of the low swings through. At this point, precipitation amounts look to be light. High pressure will begin to build back in on Sunday, bringing a return to sunny skies to start next week. Temperatures will cool down a little bit on Sunday and Monday, though, with highs dropping back down to around 10 C, before it warms back up toward the mid-teens by Wednesday or Thursday.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 5 to 17 C; lows, -6 to +4 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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