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Forecast: Expect the slow melt to continue

Issued March 25, 2019: Covering the period from March 27 to April 6

Have I ever mentioned how difficult it can be to create weather forecasts in the spring and fall, never mind trying to create a week-long forecast three days ahead of time? The yearly springtime battle between cold and warm air simply makes for a rough, frustrating time in the weather forecasting department.

This battle played out during last week’s forecast, and fortunately for us, the colder air won out, kind of. At the start of last week, the weather models called for very mild and wet conditions to end March, and while we did see some mild weather, cool high pressure ended up dominating the picture, allowing for nearly perfect melting conditions.

For this forecast period, we will start off nice and mild as an area of low pressure tracks through central Manitoba. Southern regions will likely see a mix of sun and clouds with maybe the odd shower as daytime highs push the 10 C mark. Behind this low we will see arctic high pressure build southward, bringing a return to mainly sunny skies along with seasonably cool temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be near or slightly below freezing on Thursday and Friday with overnight lows around -10 C. We may see some cloudy periods along with a few flurries on Friday and into early Saturday, as a weak frontal system slides through the province.

Next week will begin with arctic high pressure back in place, which will once again return us to mainly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs within a couple of degrees of the freezing mark and overnight lows dropping into the -10 to -14 C range. We may see a little light snow on Tuesday or Wednesday as the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking along the border ahead of the next arctic high poised to build in during the second half of next week, but confidence in this system is fairly low. Looking further ahead, it looks like seasonably cool temperatures will continue, resulting in a continued slow melt.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -4 to +8 C; lows, -16 to -3 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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