Weather: Warm temps finally return

Forecast issued Apr. 28, 2023, covering the period from May 3 to May 10, 2023

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: May 4, 2023

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This issue’s map shows the total amount of precipitation as a percentage of average that fell across the Prairies during the 30 days ending April 19. There were two notable areas: the large dry region in Alberta, and the near- to slightly wetter-than-average part of southern Saskatchewan. Over Manitoba, April was a bit of a mixed bag when it came to precipitation, with western regions seeing below average and extreme southern and eastern regions seeing near to above average.

If you paid attention to the end of last week’s forecast, you might not be expecting a weather forecast in this issue. We are working to switch from print-based to web-based forecasting, which will allow us to create better and more timely forecasts.

Well, you know the saying: best-laid plans. Due to unforeseen technical issues, this switch will occur in our next issue, fingers crossed. With the new web-based forecasts, I will do a general Prairie overview, then focus on key points for each of the three Prairie provinces. The idea is to put out two forecasts a week.

OK, now to this issue’s forecast. I am happy to say it finally looks like summer is arriving and might be here to stay. After a cool start to spring, the weather models point toward development of a large upper ridge of high pressure across Western Canada. This ridge looks like it will build eastward over the next week, bringing dry weather and warm temperatures.

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We should start this forecast period with mainly sunny skies and daytime highs pushing into the mid- to upper teens, with overnight lows falling into the 3 to 5 C range.

As the upper ridge continues to build and push eastward over the weekend, we should see temperatures slowly inch their way upward each day. Weather models hint at the low 20s over the weekend, especially over western regions.

In the east, an area of cool high pressure is forecast to drop southward through northern Ontario. Depending on the track of this high, eastern regions may experience a cool easterly flow over the weekend, keeping high temperatures in the mid- to upper teens.

For the week of May 8, it looks like the cool eastern high will be gone, allowing for the warmest air of the season to move in. Daytime highs may push into the mid-20s by Tuesday or Wednesday, before a slight cooldown, as a weak cold front slides through, behind an area of low pressure moving by to our far north.

Fortunately, it looks like the warm air will quickly rebound, with summer-like temperatures returning by the weekend.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs, +8 to +22 C; lows, -2 to +8 C.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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