Well, the weather over the holiday season played out pretty close to what the weather models had predicted. We experienced a good old cold snap in the days leading up to and including Christmas, and then the warm air flooded in from the west almost exactly the day it was predicted. Thankfully, that warm air lasted right through to the end of the month.
For this forecast period, we are starting off with a little bit of uncertainty. The weather models predict a Colorado low to develop and track into northern Ontario right around Jan. 3 or 4. Most of the model runs keep this storm well to our east, but there have been a few runs where southeastern Manitoba does receive a glancing hit. As with all Colorado lows, the potential is always there, but the chance of it hitting us looks very low.
Whatever track the Colorado low takes, an area of arctic high pressure will slide southwards behind it on Thursday and Friday. This high should bring clear skies, light winds, and cold temperatures to our region. Expect daytime highs to be in the -20 C range with overnight lows falling to around -30 C. This high is forecasted to move off to the southeast over the weekend of Jan. 7-8. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly winds which, at first, will make it feel colder as windchill values increase. These same winds will help to push out the cold air and allow a milder air mass to move in. Daytime highs are forecasted to warm to around -12 C by Sunday or Monday, with overnight lows falling to around -20 C.
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These milder temperatures look to stick around until the end of this forecast period. Looking further ahead, the weather models are showing colder air working its way back in by Thursday or Friday (Jan. 12), but for those wishing for more snow, the main storm track looks to remain well to our south.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -22 to -4 C; lows, -32 to -14 C.
