It seems a little early for weather models to be struggling with forecasts, but that has been happening in the last several weeks. For the third consecutive week, the weather models appeared to have settled on a stable forecast, only to have small changes grow and magnify and totally change the forecast. That’s chaos theory at work!
For this forecast period, the weather models appear to have once again come to a consensus, but we’ll have to see how this plays out. The overall pattern looks to be warm as the models predict the western upper ridge of high pressure to grow and expand eastward.
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This upper ridge has brought warm/hot temperatures to much of Alberta and the northern Prairies over the last few weeks but has struggled to work its way eastward into southern Manitoba.
After an unsettled start to the week, thanks to the southward shift of an area of low pressure, we should see mainly sunny skies move in as an area of high pressure slides southeastward through our region.
Temperatures will start off near seasonable values on Wednesday, with daytime highs in the low 20s and overnight lows dropping to around 10 C. As this high moves to our southeast and the upper ridge expands eastward, we will see little in the way of clouds and daytime highs will climb to around 30 C and overnight lows in the mid-teens. Luckily, it does not look like dew points will be high, so humidex values should not be too bad.
Hot, dry weather looks to continue right through the long weekend as the ridge is forecasted to remain over our region. Combine this with a developing area of low pressure over Alberta and we could expect increasing southerly winds and daytime highs in some regions possibly pushing into the mid-30s.
These hot, dry conditions look to continue into the first week of September before the western low finally pushes eastward, bringing with it the chance of showers and cooler weather to end the week.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 17 to 27 C; lows, 5 to 13 C.
