Well, the last forecast got the overall pattern right, but, in a good sign that we are switching to a summer-like pattern, the exact timing, strength and positioning of the systems were a little off. We did see the expected warm-up and the strong low did develop to our southwest, but it tracked northward in a couple of waves of energy instead of one big system.
For this forecast period it looks like we are going to see more of the same unsettled weather as the pattern seems to keep slipping back from a stable pattern into an active one. In the beginning of June, it looks as though the weather pattern will try to stabilize, but the two main weather models are handling the details differently. One model is keeping us sunny and dry, with temperatures running around average for this time of the year. The second main weather model is showing an upper low lingering over our region bringing a mix of sun and clouds, the chance of afternoon showers and much cooler temperatures thanks to a persistent northerly flow. This model actually brings a chance of a light frost on June 3 and 4, with forecasted overnight lows to be in the 2 to 5 C range.
For the first full week of June, it looks like sprawling high pressure over the northern Prairies will dominate our weather, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies along with near-average temperatures. Central and more-northern regions will likely see the nicest and warmest weather thanks to this high. Southern regions have a small chance of seeing some showers or thundershowers around mid-week as energy begins to gather once again to our southwest. Looking a little further ahead, there are hints that the active, wet pattern will try to re-establish itself by June 9 or 10, although that is a long way off and plenty can change before then.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 17 to 28 C; lows, 4 to 14 C.
