Weather: Upper ridge and mild weather featured in forecast

Forecast issued October 14, covering the period from October 19 to October 26, 2022

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: October 20, 2022

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Taking a break from precipitation maps, here’s a look at the departure-from-average temperatures across the Prairies during the 30-day period ending Oct. 10. All regions reported above-average temperatures, with the warmest regions found under the centre of the upper- level ridge in Alberta. This region saw temperatures ranging from 2 to 5 C warmer than average.

Last week’s forecast ran into trouble early on. After a warm start, the forecasted northern low tracked by and dragged cold and unsettled air into our region. This northern low then stalled out over Hudson Bay and drifted back westward. This retrograde motion kept us in a cold and moist northerly flow all of last weekend and kept the western ridge of high pressure well to our west.

For this forecast period, it looks like the western ridge will push eastward, bringing a return to mild fall weather by Wednesday. Under the building ridge we should expect to see daytime highs warm into the low to mid-teens with overnight lows falling within a few degrees of freezing. Winds look to be relatively light, making for some really nice fall days.

Over the weekend there is uncertainty in the forecast. An area of arctic high pressure is forecasted to drop southeastward along the eastern edge of the upper ridge. How far east the ridge builds, and how strong the ridge becomes, will determine how much of an impact this arctic high will have on us.

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A stronger and more easterly ridge should keep most of the cold air to our east, while a weaker and more westerly ridge will mean a significant cool down over the weekend.

No matter the outcome, weather models show the arctic high moving off to the east and the western ridge building back into our region to begin the week of Oct. 24. It looks like we may see sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures through to the end of the week. Forecasted daily highs are expected to be in the mid- to possibly upper-teens, with overnight lows falling near the freezing mark.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 4 to 15 C; lows, -6 to 4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 40 per cent.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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