Last week’s forecast ran into trouble early on. After a warm start, the forecasted northern low tracked by and dragged cold and unsettled air into our region. This northern low then stalled out over Hudson Bay and drifted back westward. This retrograde motion kept us in a cold and moist northerly flow all of last weekend and kept the western ridge of high pressure well to our west.
For this forecast period, it looks like the western ridge will push eastward, bringing a return to mild fall weather by Wednesday. Under the building ridge we should expect to see daytime highs warm into the low to mid-teens with overnight lows falling within a few degrees of freezing. Winds look to be relatively light, making for some really nice fall days.
Over the weekend there is uncertainty in the forecast. An area of arctic high pressure is forecasted to drop southeastward along the eastern edge of the upper ridge. How far east the ridge builds, and how strong the ridge becomes, will determine how much of an impact this arctic high will have on us.
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A stronger and more easterly ridge should keep most of the cold air to our east, while a weaker and more westerly ridge will mean a significant cool down over the weekend.
No matter the outcome, weather models show the arctic high moving off to the east and the western ridge building back into our region to begin the week of Oct. 24. It looks like we may see sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures through to the end of the week. Forecasted daily highs are expected to be in the mid- to possibly upper-teens, with overnight lows falling near the freezing mark.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 4 to 15 C; lows, -6 to 4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 40 per cent.
