Well, last week’s forecast turned out pretty good, but it was not as good as the previous three forecasts. We did see the cool-down and as predicted by the weather models, with the eastern trough of low pressure winning out and our region seeing a return to near-average to even a little below-average temperatures. The latter part of the forecast struggled a bit, as the western ridge did not strengthen as much as predicted.
For this forecast period, the main weather models are leaning toward a continuation of near- to slightly below-average temperatures with only a few chances of precipitation. After an unsettled start to the week, thanks to a trough of low pressure, it looks like a second area of low pressure will develop over Alberta around mid-week and then track through southern and central Manitoba on Thursday and Friday. This low will bring slightly warmer temperatures along with the chance of showers early on, changing to the chance of flurries as the low pulls off to the east by the weekend.
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Halloween Sunday and Monday look to be very nice as a brief ridge of high pressure builds over our region. Expect plenty of sunshine with daytime highs around the 10 C mark, with overnight lows falling to around -3 C. Winds also look to be relatively light out of the south. A weak trough of low pressure is then forecast to move through on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing with it the chance of showers during the day and flurries at night. Temperatures will cool down as the trough passes, with daytime highs cooling to around 5 C by the end of this forecast period.
Looking further ahead, the weather models are being fairly consistent with the current pattern of near-average temperatures and the occasional chance of some light precipitation continuing into the first part of November.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 1 to 13 C; lows, -9 to +2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent.
