Last issue’s forecast did a pretty good job of handling the big picture, but as usual, getting the details and timings perfect is difficult. For this forecast period, I think the best two words to sum it up are traditional summer.
This forecast period will begin with high pressure building in from the west. Ahead of this high, a weak system may bring clouds and a few scattered showers and thundershowers on Thursday. Temperatures will be around average, with daytime highs in the 22 to 24 C range and overnight lows falling to around 14 C.
By Friday the western high will have established itself across our region, bringing plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures.
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As the high drifts to our east over the weekend, we will see a strengthening southerly flow develop as low pressure begins to organize to our west. This southerly flow will help push daytime highs into the mid to upper 20s. Along with the warmer temperatures will come an increase in humidity, making if feel even warmer. Some energy from the western low may begin to impact our region late on Sunday, with the chance of thundershowers or some stronger thunderstorms.
To start the week of July 13, the weather models are showing the western low remaining disorganized as it attempts to push eastward. This should keep our region in a warm southerly flow, with daytime highs continuing in the upper 20s to around 30, and overnight lows falling into the 15 to 18 C range.
With bits of energy breaking off the western low, there will be the chance of showers, thunder showers and thunderstorms every day. It doesn’t look like we will get rain each day, and not all regions will see rainfall. It will all depend on the timing and behaviour of the western low. Overall, it’s fairly traditional summer weather.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs 22 to 31 C; lows 10 to 17 C.