Forecasting the weather is hard, as I have repeatedly pointed out, and forecasting the weather a week in advance is even harder. Add in the huge uncertainty that fall and spring bring to forecasting, and it starts to enter the realm of impossibility.
That said, I still try to make a go of it.
Last week’s forecast started off well enough, with the building western ridge of high pressure that brought some nice warm fall weather. That lasted until the end of last weekend.
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It takes more than just a trough of low pressure to develop an Alberta Clipper or Colorado Low, which are the biggest winter storms in Manitoba. It also takes humidity, temperature changes and a host of other variables coming into play.
Then the wheels fell off the bus, which brings us to where my problem begins for this forecast period.
My deadline means I must submit my forecast before the start of the week. So, as I write this, I am unsure how a storm system will impact our region on Oct. 24-25. The strength of that system will have an impact on the forecast.
Working with the latest weather models, it looks like the storm system will be out of our region by the start of this forecast period. It will have broken down the western ridge and replaced it with a broad trough of cool low pressure across Western Canada. Expect partly cloudy skies, along with daytime highs in the 2 to 6 C range and overnight lows falling to around -7 C from Wednesday to Friday.
Over the weekend it looks like southern regions could see more clouds than sun along with the chance of showers. Weather models show the potential for a weak area of low pressure to track by to our south. This should pave the way for a nice Halloween Monday as high pressure builds in behind this low, bringing sunny skies, light winds and seasonable temperatures.
Looking further ahead, the weather models hint at another storm system moving into our region around Nov. 2 or 3. Confidence in this is low, but should it materialize, it would likely bring the first widespread snows of the season to our region.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 1 to 13 C; lows, -9 to 2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent.
