The weather word for early spring was “dodging,” as in, “Just how long could we keep dodging storm systems?” Well, we all know the answer to that question. We got a hint of the answer in early April as a system brushed by us. This was then followed up by a direct hit with a major storm on April 14-16. Now as I write this forecast, southern and central Manitoba are poised to get hit by yet another major storm system on April 22-24.
This makes trying to create a forecast very difficult. How this storm system behaves, which regions will see rain and snow, and just how much precipitation will have an impact on the weather that follows. Also, just how strong the system gets will affect the forecast. With that said, here is what the weather models show for the period of April 27 to May 3.
We should start out with sunny to partly cloudy skies as a small Alberta clipper slowly moves northeastward and weakens. The southerly flow ahead of this system should allow temperatures to warm toward the 10 C mark by Friday. Over the weekend we will once again have to keep an eye on the possibility of another Colorado low. Confidence in the low this far out is not high, but since we seem to be in a Colorado low pattern, we need to keep a watch on this. We could see rain move in as early as Friday evening or Saturday morning with the possibility of 10-20 mm of rainfall. Good news is, this system does not look as if it will get as strong as the other two Colorado lows; bad news is, we still may see some snow on the back side of the storm as it pulls off to the east.
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Once this system moves by, we can expect sunny skies with seasonably cool temperatures to start the first full week of May. Expect temperatures to be near the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. Looking further ahead, there are some hints of an upper ridge developing to our west which may eventually usher in above-average temperatures.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs: 7 to 20 C; lows, -3 to +6 C.
