Like the last forecast period, the weather models did a fairly good job with the overall weather pattern, but the timing of the different systems was off by a day or two. This break in the timing of the systems began with the rain and showers that moved through southern and central Manitoba last Thursday, instead of late Friday into Saturday, as the weather models predicted. Fortunately, rainfall amounts were not too significant, and warm weather built back in as expected.
For this forecast period, our attention turns once more to whether we will see our first fall frost. Well, the weather models show this forecast period starting with an area of low pressure tracking through northern Manitoba, which will push a cold front southward on Wednesday. Currently, it looks like overnight lows will fall into the 2 to 4 C range by Thursday morning, meaning frost-prone areas could see below-freezing temperatures.
If you miss out on that chance for frost, it looks like we will be seeing a return to milder temperatures over the weekend and into the first half of the week of Sept. 26. A building upper ridge of high pressure to our west, combined with a weak surface high over our region, should bring sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be around the 20 C mark with overnight lows falling to around 7 C. There is a slight chance in more northern regions of seeing the odd shower over the weekend as a weak area of low pressure slides down the eastern edge of the upper ridge.
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Sunny and mild conditions are forecasted to last until around Thursday, Sept. 29, when the models show a strong cold front dropping southward, bringing what looks to be the first widespread frost of the season. As usual, that is still a long way off and plenty can change between now and then.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 12 to 22 C; lows, 1 to 10 C.
