Those of you who follow my forecasts know a couple of things about them. One, I need to be general, since I create a weeklong forecast with a lead time of five days. Two, weather forecasting is tough no matter when, but fall and spring are hardest because they can bring wild swings in the weather.
With those two points in mind, last week’s forecast did pretty darned well. We saw the dramatic cool down and warm up over the Thanksgiving weekend. The warm weather stuck around to start the week of Oct. 10, but it did not look as though it would stick around for the whole week as first expected.
As for this forecast, after a warmish start to the week, a strong area of low-pressure tracking by to the north of Manitoba will deepen, slow down and then meander around Hudson Bay for most of the week. The counter-clockwise rotation around the low will pull plenty of cold air southward. Expect daytime highs in the 5 C range with overnight lows falling to around -5 C.
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Over the weekend of Oct. 15 and 16, the strong ridge of high pressure persisting over Western Canada is forecasted to push slightly eastward. This should bring a return of milder temperatures, with western regions seeing daytime highs into the upper teens and eastern regions seeing low teens.
Late in the weekend or early next week, weather models show an area of low pressure riding down the side of the upper ridge. It looks like most of the precipitation from this low will stay to the north of our forecast regions, but once the low passes by, winds will be northerly and colder air will push into our region, dropping temperatures back into the lower end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
Usual temperature range for this period; highs: 6 to 18 C, lows: -4 to 6 C.
