Last week’s forecast played out well, considering the weak systems in place and the relatively unstable atmosphere. We saw some cool unsettled weather, the heat moved in, and we had the chance of thundershowers or stronger thunderstorms every few days.
For this forecast period, the only difference is that it looks like temperatures are going to heat up a bit more.
Conditions are projected to begin with an area of high pressure over Ontario that stretches southwestward. Sitting above this, to our southwest, is a large but weak and disorganized area of low pressure. This low is basically a thermal low, meaning it is created by a large area of warm rising air. These two systems will combine to put us in a southerly flow, resulting in warm or hot temperatures and high humidity.
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Temperatures look to start off in the mid- to upper 20s and rise into the low to mid-30s by the weekend of July 16-17. These hot temperatures may stick around for most of the following week. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the 20 to 24 C range during this period, which will probably result in a few heat warnings. Overnight lows will also be mild, dropping to around 15 C.
With the placement of the high to our east and southeast, disorganized low pressure to our southwest, and all the heat and humidity, there is a good chance for thunderstorms. The exact timing is impossible to predict this far out, but any given day could see storms develop. It looks like the best chances for storms will be over the weekend and around the end of this forecast period.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 32 C; lows, 12 to 17 C.
