The last week’s forecast hit the nail on the head with respect to the overall weather pattern, as two different storm systems impacted our region as predicted. However, the models struggled with the interaction between these two systems.
The first system hit southwestern regions on April 18 and 19. It then stalled out, while the second storm developed a little earlier than expected. This storm system was pulled northward by the stalled low, bringing a second round of stormy weather to more southern and eastern regions.
The big question for this forecast period is whether we are finally done with these storm systems and whether we will finally see some warm, dry weather. Unfortunately, the medium-range forecast still doesn’t look that great.
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This forecast period looks to start with another area of low pressure developing to our southwest, then slowly spinning its way across the Dakotas. This system will bring clouds along with some showers and maybe the odd flurry starting on Wednesday and lasting right through the weekend as a second low drops southeastward out of Alberta.
It doesn’t look like we will get much precipitation from either system and we might even see the odd sunny period, but overall, temperatures will be cool. Expect daytime highs in the 6 to 10 C range, with overnight lows falling to around 0 C.
Moving into the first week of May, the weather models show slightly warmer air trying to push in, but a persistent northwesterly flow will keep temperatures from really warming up. Daytime highs are expected to be around 14 C, with overnight lows still dropping close to the 0 C mark.
The longer-range models continue to show above-average temperatures moving in for May but so far, I do not see anything in the general weather pattern that would lead me to believe it. Wish I had better news. Oh, wait … there is!
Starting in the next issue we will switch the print-based forecast to an online version. This will allow me to provide more up-to-date forecasts, not just for Manitoba but for the entire Prairies.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, +5 to +17 C; lows, -5 to +5 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 35 per cent.
