It’s interesting how the forecast played out over the last period. At first glance it seemed off the mark, but on a closer look it was off only in the timing of the weather trends.
The heat built in over the long weekend and into the first week of September, but cooler air moved in a day or so earlier than forecasted. This impacted the rest of the forecast and pushed temperatures to the mid- to upper 20s until around Sept. 12.
I guess the big question for this forecast period is whether the warm and dry weather will continue. We could also ask whether it will become wet – and does it look like we will see any frost?
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The weather models have been consistent over the last while, but there are hints at a slightly wetter pattern. Each time the model shows wet weather moving in, the next model dries things out, but the overall pattern seems to be staying the same. As with the last forecast, the difficulty is with timing.
After a warm start to the week, it looks like seasonable temperatures will dominate our region from Wednesday to at least Friday. Expect daytime highs around 20 C with overnight lows falling into the 4 to 8 C range. We could see the odd light shower on Wednesday as a weak low passes by to our south.
By the weekend we see our first chance of more significant rainfall as an area of low pressure is forecast to track northeastward from southwestern Alberta into north-central Manitoba. Temperatures should warm up on Saturday ahead of the low, but by how much depends on the clouds and showers that develop ahead of the low.
By Sunday or Monday this low will be out of our region, allowing a return of sunshine as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will once again cool to more seasonable values with highs in the upper teens to around 20 C. By Wednesday, the weather models show another low developing to our southwest and tracking toward north-central Manitoba, bringing a repeat of the weather pattern from the previous weekend.
Looking as far as the detailed mid-range weather model goes, there are no signs of widespread frost, but we all know how fast the weather can change, especially in the fall.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 13 to 24 C; lows, 2 to 11 C.
