Forecast: Very warm pattern setting up

Issued January 16, 2017 – Covering the period from January 18 to January 25, 2017

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Published: January 19, 2017

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This issue’s map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this winter compared to historical values. You can quickly see how the main storm track has run across the southeastern Prairies, with much of southern and central Manitoba seeing high to record-high amounts. Farther west it has been a fairly dry winter so far, with most regions reporting low to record-low amounts of precipitation.

The warm weather arrived as forecast, with mild Pacific air finally pushing out the cold arctic air. This mild air looks to stick around for at least this forecast period. The big question is whether we’ll see more significant precipitation.

This forecast period begins with high pressure dominating much of Western and Central Canada and the U.S. This high, combined with a large area of low pressure off the West Coast, will continue to pump plenty of mild Pacific air across the Prairies. We should see plenty of sunshine along with daytime highs running near or even above the 0 C mark. Also, expect overnight lows to be mild with temperatures expected to be in the -5 C range.

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Things start to get interesting over the weekend and into next week as the weather models try to bring more active weather into our region once again. The weather models have been consistent in bringing an area of low pressure due north out of the southern U.S. over the weekend. The latest model runs have weakened this system, but they still show some light snow or even rain falling over the weekend. Confidence in this system is fairly low.

It then looks like our active December pattern might redevelop, with the weather models hinting at a Colorado low developing next Wednesday, bringing with it another chance of measurable snow later in the week. As usual, that system is a long way off, so confidence levels are quite low, but with the way things have been going this year, it is definitely something to watch out for.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -23 to -6 C; lows, -34 to -16 C.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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