Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models predicted. Winter arrived across southern and central Manitoba late last week, with the season’s first significant snowfall hitting central and eastern regions, while the southwest received just a dusting. Temperatures then fell to around average or even a little colder than average over the weekend, making it feel like winter for the first time since early April.
For this forecast period, it looks like the weather models are starting to get a handle on the new winter pattern. At first the models were really going all out, predicting some very cold weather moving in to begin December. They now appear to have settled down and overall it looks like a pretty darned nice start to winter.
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On Wednesday we’ll see clouds along with some lingering light snow or flurries as an area of low pressure tracks to our south. There is not a lot of confidence with the track of this low, so we could see anywhere from no snow to maybe five cm, depending on the final track. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the low, with colder air moving in once it passes by.
This cold air is the result of a large area of high pressure that will dominate the rest of this forecast period. This arctic high will slowly drop southward through Alberta and Saskatchewan late in the week and will place us in a cool northerly flow. Temperatures will be running a little below average, with highs in the -8 to -10 C range and overnight lows around -15 C. Over the weekend the high will meander off to our southeast, allowing for our winds to become more westerly or even southwesterly. This will help our temperatures moderate, with daytime highs climbing into the -5 C range by late in the weekend. Along with these warming temperatures we should see plenty of sunshine as the high keeps any storm systems well away from our region.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -13 to 1 C; lows, -24 to -5 C.
