Issued: Monday, March 22, 2010 Covering: March 24 –March 31

Spring is always the toughest time of the year for forecasting and this forecast period is going to be no exception. Confidence levels are a little lower than usual for a few reasons. First, with a number of areas having little or no snow cover, sunshine can make a big difference in temperatures. Secondly, this upcoming period has the potential to be fairly active, which means plenty of chances for some showers, light rain or snow. If we end up getting snow, that can impact the forecast. Finally, as winter and summer start battling it out, the models are having a hard time deciding who is going to win out – at first it’s winter, then 12 hours later it’s summer.

That said, here’s how things look like they will play out over the next week. We will see a small, quick-moving low move through southern regions late on Wednesday, which may dump a little light snow. Behind this system we will see a surge of cool arctic air. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will struggle to get above freezing.

Over the weekend, another weak area of low pressure is forecast to push through southern and central regions of Manitoba. This system should only bring some light showers or flurries. Temperatures will moderate a little bit ahead of this system.

For the first half of next week, we should be on the southern edge of a large area of arctic high pressure. At the same time, the models have been developing a large storm system to our south. We will have to watch this system as it could bring some significant precipitation to our region over spring break. The big question will be whether it will stay to our south like most of the storms this year, but if it doesn’t, the next question would be: Will we see rain or snow from this system?

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -5 to +8 C. Lows: -17 to -2 C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 75 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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