I’ll have to admit that last issue’s forecast didn’t work out very well as the atmosphere is transitioning to a more winter-like pattern. That pattern begins this forecast period as a Colorado low is forecasted to affect parts of our region during the first half of the week, bringing some winter weather along with it.
It’s always tough to create a forecast when a major weather event is about to unfold. It looks like an area of low pressure combined with some arctic air will bring the first measurable snowfall to extreme western parts of central Manitoba late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The exact track, strength, and speed of this system will determine which areas see snow and which see rain. Those areas that receive significant snow accumulation will see cooler temperatures later this week and into the weekend, while areas that receive rain will be milder.
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This low is forecasted to pull off to the northeast by Thursday, with a modified arctic high building in behind it. This high should bring a mix of sun and clouds along with near- to slightly below-average temperatures to end the week. Over the weekend an area of low pressure is forecasted to break off of a large parent low over Alaska and slide across the northern Prairies. This, combined with building high pressure to our south, should help to create a strong southwesterly flow that will boost temperatures back up towards the top end of the usual temperature range for the weekend.
A cold front will then sweep southward on Monday behind the northern low, bringing temperatures back down, with highs by Tuesday expected to be in the low single digits. The models are then showing another area of low pressure breaking off of the parent Alaska low and tracking across the northern Prairies during the middle of the week. This should once again result in mild southwesterly winds, bringing a return to above-average temperatures.
Usual temperature range for this period Highs: -2 to 8 C, Lows: -11 to -1 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 75 per cent.
