Tag Archives Weather Vane

Well, we have talked about this subject before: weather persistence. That’s the idea that the same general weather pattern will continue despite what the weather models or the atmosphere are trying to do. We saw this in the last forecast period as the warm to hot, dry weather continued to dominate. We did see a

I don’t think anyone could have predicted just how strong the western ridge of high pressure, or the “heat dome,” would become in our last forecast period. The ridge dominated the weather and, due to the strength of the ridge, moved slower than forecasted. This kept our region mostly dry, with temperatures going from warm

The forecasted cool-down did move in late last week as an upper low dropped southeastward out of northern Manitoba. What the weather models missed was the area of low pressure that moved through southern and central regions on Sunday, bringing clouds along with a few showers. This low worked in conjunction with an area of

As we reach the summer solstice, which is the longest stretch of daylight on a single day of the year, we find that summer has definitely taken hold. This usually means easier forecasting as the general weather pattern becomes less active. In the last forecast we saw it begin with several rounds of severe weather

Well, the warm, dry weather won out in last forecast. All it took was a northward shift of a few hundred kilometres to go from highs in the upper 20s to highs in the low to mid-30s. The area of low pressure that was forecast to track through southern and central regions late last week

It continues to be a tough time for the medium-range forecasts. The weather pattern continues to oscillate between cool and unsettled and warm and dry as summer tries to gain traction. Last issue’s forecast did pretty well but missed just how cold it got last Thursday and Friday mornings. I also hedged my bets on

If we look back at last issue’s forecast, it turned out to be partly right. The western trough of low pressure did develop, but it ended up being not as sharp as originally forecasted. This meant it became a wider trough, which allowed the storm systems rotating around it to make their way into Manitoba.

Sometimes with weather it is a matter of a few hundred kilometres, and that small change early on can magnify into big changes later in the forecast period. This is exactly what happened with the previous forecast. An area of low pressure, forecasted to impact southern regions early in the forecast period, was weaker and

The two big forecast questions for this forecast period are: Will we finally see some consistently warm temperatures? And are we going to see any significant precipitation — preferably in the form of rain? Well, to start off this forecast period, the weather models show seasonable temperatures as our region finds itself in a light