Weather: A below-average start, then warmer?

Forecast covering the period from May 26 to June 2

This map shows the percentage of average precipitation across the Prairies during the 30 days ending May 19. Except for parts of Alberta around Edmonton and into the southern Peace region that reported average to above-average amounts, the rest of the Prairies have been dry, with amounts generally under 40 per cent of average.

If we look back at last issue’s forecast, it turned out to be partly right. The western trough of low pressure did develop, but it ended up being not as sharp as originally forecasted. This meant it became a wider trough, which allowed the storm systems rotating around it to make their way into Manitoba. The positive: It brought rain, but just how much is still up in the air as I write this. The negative: It put us into a cool northerly flow much sooner than expected.

The big questions for this forecast period are “Just how cool will it get?” (frost) and “How much precipitation might actually fall?” While it does look like we will see fairly cool weather, and the chances for precipitation are fairly good, it doesn’t look like we will see excessive rainfall — I just hope we see enough.

To begin this forecast period, the weather models show the last of the series of storm systems that brought the unsettled weather over the long weekend moving off to the east, allowing for sunny to partly cloudy skies to move in. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day as arctic high pressure slides by to our northeast. By Friday, May 28, the weather models show a strong area of low pressure moving across the northern Prairies with a trough extending southward into the northern states. This will bring increasing clouds along with the chance of showers and thundershowers through to Saturday.

Behind this low there will be another strong push of cool arctic air with overnight lows on Sunday forecasted to fall into the 2 to 5 C range, which means frost-prone areas could see below-freezing temperatures. For much of the week of May 31 to June 5, the models are bouncing back and forth between a cool unsettled pattern and a return to dry hot weather. Not sure which one will win out at this point, so be prepared for a cool start to June — but be just as ready for the heat to move back in.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 16 to 27 C; lows, 3 to 12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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