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(Dave Bedard photo)
Crops, Markets

AAFC revises crop estimates

Export, new-crop production outlooks revised lower for flax

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MarketsFarm — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) on Friday released its February supply and demand estimates with numerous small changes. AAFC held its projections for 2022-23 grains and oilseeds production at 89.489 million tonnes. As for exports, the department reduced them from 45.715 million tonnes last month to now 45.49 million. Furthermore, domestic usage was
The MKK1, a Palau-flagged bulker carrying grain under the United Nations’ Black Sea grain initiative, is towed free after running aground in the Bosphorus strait near Istanbul on Jan. 16. The grain initiative is next set to expire in mid-March.
Grain Markets, Markets

Wheat market waits for a lift

Circumstances seem to be setting up for a positive price breakthrough

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There was little to find in terms of surprises within the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) monthly supply/demand estimates released on Feb. 8 — and even less so with wheat. Ending stocks for U.S. wheat were projected at 568 million bushels, only one million more than in USDA’s January report and right between the low
ICE March 2023 canola with Bollinger bands (20,2). (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: Canola drifting lower

Near-record soy still expected from South America

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MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts drifted lower during the week ended Wednesday, although values remained rangebound overall. “The market is maybe coming to the realization that we still have near-record South American (soybean) supplies on hand,” Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg said of the downtrend. While Argentina has suffered crop losses from
Brazil’s soybean crop this year is expected to more than offset any drought-reduced yields in neighbouring Argentina.
Grain Markets, Markets

No breakout for rangebound canola for now

New StatCan and USDA data aren’t expected to offer much impetus

By
There is likely nothing substantial over the next few months that could break canola and other vegetable oils out of their rangebound state. Canola, for instance, continued to vacillate between $800 and $850 per tonne during the week ended Feb. 2. In recent weeks the Canadian oilseed has pushed towards $900/tonne, its upper level of
ICE March 2023 canola with 20-day moving average (yellow line, right column) and Canadian dollar value in U.S. dollars (red line, left column). (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: March canola unchanged from last week

Loonie's relative strength seen as drag on values

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MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was once again trading rangebound for the week ended Wednesday, as the March contract was left unchanged from one week earlier at $828.20. The contract oscillated between a range of $819.40 and $837 per tonne during the week, all the while seemingly immune from larger price ranges seen
(Dave Bedard photo)
Crops, Markets

Grain stocks come in as projected

StatCan report deemed neutral for canola and spring wheat, supportive for durum

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MarketsFarm — Stocks of Canadian grains at year-end appear to be pretty much in line with market expectations. Statistics Canada on Tuesday issued its report on stocks as of Dec. 31, 2022, which highlighted notable increases in most grains, further signaling a recovery from the 2021 drought. “Stocks reports are important because they confirm the
Destroyed grain storage in the village of Kamianka, Kharkiv, liberated from Russian invaders by Ukrainian forces in October 2022. Three very separate, unique and low probability events caused grain prices to rise this time around: pandemic, drought and war.
News

When markets burst, it’s never pretty

We’ve seen plenty of price surges followed by collapses. Are commodities next?

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Over the past few years, if not decades, there’s been a lot of volatility in markets and economies worldwide. You can start 30 years ago with the Asian currency crisis, Russian debt default and Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund collapse in the late 1990s as examples of explosive events in financial markets. Then, as we
Flea beetles are showing signs of resistance to pyrethroids in Europe, where neonics have been banned for years.
Crops, Oilseeds

Neonics still best flea beetle option

There’s mounting evidence the European ban has significant unintended consequences, entomologist says

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Neonicotinoids used as a seed treatment remain the safest and most effective tool for managing flea beetles, an entomologist says. Neonicotinoids are a widely used class of insecticides available since the 1990s. Concerns about their environmental impact emerged in the early 2000s, when studies showed they caused harm to honeybees and other pollinators. These findings
Wheat being loaded onto a cargo ship in Vancouver in 2011. (File photo: Reuters/Ben Nelms)
Crops, Markets

China top destination for Canadian grains, oilseeds

CGC data points to key destinations

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MarketsFarm — China is the top destination for Canadian grain and oilseed exports through the first five months of the 2022-23 marketing year, accounting for roughly a third of the total movement, according to the latest monthly report from the Canadian Grain Commission. Canada has exported 6.566 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds, and pulses to
ICE March 2023 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: Choppy trading for canola, other oilseeds

Signals not pointing to course change for now

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MarketsFarm — Expect canola and other oilseed markets to remain choppy for the time being, according to trader Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg. “All of the markets are very choppy and erratic. They’re very nervous markets,” Ball emphasized, noting war in Ukraine and drought in Argentina are having some of the biggest impacts

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