GFM Network News

Canola crops in some spots on the Prairies are currently about a month away from swathing.

Despite bearish pressures, canola remains rangebound

Storms in some areas have built a weather premium into crop values

Canola on the ICE Futures exchange remained locked in a range during the week ended July 23. Canola prices started the week at $485.30 per tonne and were on either side of steady throughout the week. The November contract closed July 23 at $485.40 per tonne. By all accounts, canola prices held up to considerable

When the loonie rises it can quickly wipe out what otherwise would have been market gains.

As always, canola follows soyoil, loonie

Right now this well-established relationship is calling many of the shots

It’s the same old, same old when it comes to the relationship between the values for canola, soyoil and the Canadian dollar. Soyoil and the dollar are the leaders and canola is the follower. Over the course of last week that relationship was quite evident. After the November canola contract closed on July 10 at $479.50 per tonne, it

The council’s expected wheat carry-over for 2020-21 slipped 400,000 tonnes to 289.9 million, but that’s about 6.0 per cent higher than in 2019-20.

International Grains Council raises several key projections

Total global carry-over for 2020-21 is now seen at 635 million tonnes

In the latest monthly report from the International Grains Council (IGC) there were several increases in production and carry-over projections. The council released its report on June 25, predicting a 2.85 per cent increase in total global grain production from 2019-20 to 2.237 billion tonnes in 2020-21. Compared to the council’s May report, that’s a

Wheat is harvested outside the settlement of Terskiy in Russia’s Stavropol region on July 7.

Weather worries supportive for canola and wheat values

Wheat output in the Black Sea region is seen declining

Weather concerns provided the catalyst for strength in all of the major grains and oilseeds during the week ended July 9, with canola hitting its best levels in four months. However, shifting weather outlooks will keep the futures on edge over the next few weeks, as traders reacting to the day-to-day forecasts may create some volatility over the summer.

New Canadian and U.S. estimates of canola and soybean acres were generally supportive for canola futures.

With seeding intentions clear, traders now watching the skies

Strength in the Chicago soy complex also helped lift canola values

Acreage data from government agencies supported canola values during the week ended July 2. On June 29, Statistics Canada estimated canola acreage across the country at 20.778 million acres, which was at the higher end of trade estimates, though slightly lower than the 20.956 million acres seeded the previous year. Canola prices were supported by

Canola market likely to move lower

The market is awaiting a June 29 report that could reveal a significant drop

Three factors will determine which way canola will move in the coming weeks – the Canadian dollar, the Prairie weather, and the Chicago Board of Trade, according to Errol Anderson of ProMarket Communications in Calgary, Alta. “I’m expecting the Canadian dollar to move up a bit, just because of United States dollar pressure. That could

ICE canola can’t hang on to its recent gains

Canola traders will now turn their attention to the skies

ICE Futures canola contracts ran into resistance during the week ended June 11, repeatedly trying and failing to continue the short-covering rally that had boosted prices off of nearby lows to start the month. Intermonth spreading was a feature, accounting for heavy volumes on occasion, as traders rolled out of the nearby July contract into

Canola gains on veg oils’ strength

Pressure comes from the loonie’s recent improvement against the U.S. dollar

Canola prices climbed higher during the week ended June 5, despite strength in the Canadian dollar that would typically have a bearish effect on prices. Nearby canola contracts started the week at $457.10 per tonne and posted losses on Monday before rallying on Tuesday. By June 4, nearby contracts closed at $463.60 per tonne. The Canadian dollar was over 74

Traders’ optimism for canola is short lived

Hopes of Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans have also faded as tensions mount

Things were looking rather good for canola during the first part of the week of May 25 — then prices dropped almost immediately on May 27 after a ruling was announced on the extradition of Meng Wanzhou. Canola, as it so often does, had been riding the coattails of soyoil on the Chicago Board of

Manitoba’s Agriculture Department reported seeding at about 42 per cent complete at the end of the second week of May, down from the three-year average of about 55 per cent.

Canola futures run up into resistance

Canola’s downturn likely followed declines in CBOT soybeans and soyoil

After grinding higher for most of the past month, the ICE Futures canola market ran into resistance and took back a large portion of those gains during the week ended May 22. The July contract traded just below resistance around the 100-day moving average, near $475 per tonne, for a number of days before finally