GFM Network News


Most of the time markets move in what can be considered a sideways trend.

Expect the unexpected in markets

When the unexpected hits, price variation can exceed the expected very quickly

Last article, I talked about managing risk and uncertainty in the markets. As you might recall, there is an important difference between the two. Risk estimates everything we think might happen. Risk is our guess about what the future holds. More precisely, it is the range of things that might happen and how probable each

Volatility is more of a mathematical definition of how much a market will likely move in the future based on past fluctuations.

Volatile times need a market strategy

Think of these tools as an insurance policy where you pay a fee to avoid risks

Given what’s happened in the markets in the past couple of months, it’s a good time to revisit risk: how to think about it, how to manage it and its practical impact on marketing and hedging. As the coronavirus was unleashing its effects on the markets, I was also reading an interesting book called An



U.S. spring wheat May-August precipitation (inches).

Markets watch the weather

Rain makes grain, and it’s one of the most volatile variables for Prairie farms

Price and yield are the two biggest determinants of farm revenue. Using farming software to run simulations and what-if scenarios shows that even a modest change in commodity prices or crop yields can have a big impact on gross margins and the bottom line. This makes sense, given revenues are top line 100-cent dollars. While

The view from GrainWorld

Most presenters said there are a lot of balls in the air right now, and nobody knows where they will fall

It is definitely one conference not to be missed. Numerous speakers covered various topics although this year it seemed that most things that made me go “hmmm” were in the areas of trade dynamics, political/social factors, marketing and, of course, technology. Political and social factors dominated many of the sessions with suggestions that there will


Currency volatility important to remember

We’re currently at the low end of the historic range for the loonie’s value against the greenback


Canada exports almost a third of its gross domestic products of goods and services. And when it comes to agriculture, those percentages are even higher. Based on statistics from the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, we export 50 per cent of our beef/cattle, 65 per cent of our malt barley, 70 per cent of our soybeans,

U.K. long-term government bond interest rate (1700-2016).

Derwin: Analyzing interest rate trends

Interest rates can do some surprising things for longer than expected

I put a great deal of effort in to analyzing long-term historical trends to better understand the cyclical nature of human behaviour and its impact on financial market prices. Interest rates are no exception. In fact, interest rates are key to the pricing structure of almost every other asset from stocks, gold and currencies to

From a financial perspective, the objective is to get the most bottom line net profit possible every year.

Using ratios to calculate your farm’s performance

Use this simple but powerful 
tool to see how you’re really doing on your farm

Last month, we looked at how a review and assessment of your marketing can help make your production sales more balanced, easier to manage and ultimately more profitable. This month, we’ll look at how these marketing practices are part of a bigger picture called gross margin efficiencies. As we all know, commodity sales are your


Watch agricultural commodity markets for seasonal patterns

Taking advantage of these trends to your benefit is both an art and science

Seasonality in farm commodity prices is a commonly followed market indicator and it makes some sense. Given crops are planted in the spring, subject to weather throughout the growing season and then harvested in the fall, they follow a natural pattern throughout the calendar year. But the more important question is: can you profit from

Derwin: Dollar direction signals hard to decipher

Every week the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases its Commitments of Traders (COT) report. But just how committed are the traders shown in those trading activity reports? When you look at what traders can also do in the cash, over-the-counter and physical markets associated with those futures contracts, it’s difficult to say for sure. This