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How low will canola yield go?
Grain Markets, Markets

How low will canola yield go?

Canola has certainly suffered under drought. How much is yet to be seen

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Hot and dry weather across most of the major North American growing regions remained the major topic of discussion in the grain and oilseed futures markets during the last week of July. The drought will certainly cut into the size of this year’s canola crop, but by how much? The 19.9-million-tonne forecast by Agriculture and
The general consensus within Canada’s grain trade is that Western Canada’s crops are unlikely to see much improvement from current conditions at this time.
Grain Markets, Markets

Latest federal supply/demand numbers way above expectations

Canola’s underlying fundamentals remain supportive

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The ICE Futures canola market fell off its highs during the week ended July 23 as a slight improvement in Prairie weather conditions was enough to spark a selloff. Activity in outside markets contributed to the losses, but the underlying fundamentals remain supportive for the Canadian oilseed and canola managed to find its legs as
Andy Keen looks over his canola near Manitou on July 6. Hot, dry weather has caused canola to flower too early, harming its yield potential.
Grain Markets, Markets

Grain markets remain volatile

Supply concerns have already led to price rationing

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If there is one thing canola trading for the week ended July 15 proved, it’s that the drought across the Prairies remains a powerful influence on prices. The charts proved another thing as well: there’s a tremendous amount of volatility in the canola market. Prices rallied for six consecutive sessions from July 7 to 13,
Rain on some parts of the Prairies last week pressured canola values lower, but the futures recovered as expectations for more rain were dashed.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola production outlook turns sour with drought

We may well see four-figure canola values again

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With heat and dry conditions across most of the Prairies this spring and summer, any possibility of achieving this year’s projection for 20 million tonnes of canola is pretty much out the window. Even if sufficient rains were to fall, it’s still very likely production would fall well short. Speaking with a number of traders
As the mercury spiked, so did canola futures, during the last week of June.
Grain Markets, Markets

Weather continues to drive grain markets

Many ICE canola contracts saw new highs during heat wave

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Canola futures rose with mercury levels during the last week of June, as Western Canada baked in a ‘heat dome.’ The hot temperatures and lack of moisture were stressing crops across the Prairies, sending many contracts on the ICE Futures platform to new highs. The November canola contract climbed above C$800 per tonne during the
Comparing crop condition to yield. Bottom line, weather markets make for both a challenging production and pricing environment.
Grain Markets, Markets, News

Lots of weather left this growing season

Examining the numbers suggests a poor start doesn’t doom a crop

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“Rain makes grain,” or “Seed into dust and the bins will bust,” and of course, “Wheat is a weed, you can spit on it and it will grow.” All these old sayings are really great because there’s a lot of truth in those time-tested nuggets of wisdom. Anecdotal sayings have a lot of validity to
Dryness pushes canola futures higher
Grain Markets, Markets

Dryness pushes canola futures higher

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Benefits from early-June rains have turned to doubts

New-crop canola contracts that bottomed out at the daily limit of $30 per tonne on June 17 have since made a dramatic turnaround — not so much because of what else has been going on in the markets, but rather because of the weather. As with earlier this spring, hot and dry weather has again descended over the
Further speculative shakeouts aside, weather and its effects on crops in progress will remain the major market mover in coming weeks.
Grain Markets, Markets

Commodity sell-offs drag oilseeds, grains lower

Underlying market fundamentals remain supportive

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North American grain and oilseed futures were in free-fall mode during the week ended June 17, with November canola losing nearly $100 per tonne in the span of five trading sessions. Soybeans, corn and wheat futures in the U.S. also found themselves in a tailspin as speculative long liquidation built on itself in the grains
Parts of southern Manitoba saw up to three inches of much-needed precipitation on June 8-9.
Grain Markets, Markets

Weather pulling canola prices either way

The Chicago soy complex also provided lift as well as drag

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As weather pandered to both sides of the markets this week, there wasn’t much change to canola values. There was something of a balancing act between dry conditions continuing to underpin values and significant rainfall on the Prairies providing pressure. For example, the November contract on June 4 closed at $763.60 per tonne, gaining nearly
Market participants are banking on new-crop canola production to help relieve glaring supply shortages.
Grain Markets, Markets

Traders largely abandon old-crop July canola

New-crop crush margins imply canola is still relatively cheap

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The ICE Futures canola market moved higher during the first week of June, as a heat wave heightened dryness concerns across the Prairies. With North American seeding operations nearing completion, attention in the agricultural futures should be squarely on weather forecasts heading into the summer months. Environment Canada issued heat warnings across all of Western Canada, while

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