Once again it seems that the writing of my forecast coincides with a possible major storm system. I write my forecasts late on Sunday or early on Monday and you see it Wednesday. For this forecast period, whether some regions saw significant snowfall on Monday will have an impact on temperatures until at least Friday.
The trend in last week’s forecast was for the storm track to be slightly farther north than anticipated. For this forecast period, it looks like the main storm track will be pushed well to our south. This is partly in thanks to the storm system that moved by early in the week and partly to a relatively large area of high pressure slowly sliding by to our north. The result, no matter if there is snow on the ground or not, is that it will be a cold end to April. Temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the +3 to +6 C range, with overnight lows well below freezing. We should see temperatures slowly warm towards 10 C for highs by Friday, thanks to plenty of sunshine.
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We should continue to see plenty of sunshine over the weekend with temperatures starting off well below freezing each day and overnight lows expected to be in the -4 to -8 C range. Winds look to be light, so if you can get out into the sunshine it shouldn’t feel too bad, and daytime highs should recover to around 10 C.
The weather models have been consistent in developing a very large and moist area of low pressure over the south-central U.S. late in the weekend. What they have been having trouble with is the track of the system. At this time, they show it moving due north, bringing rain to our region early next week, though the latest model runs have been trending towards a more southerly and easterly route. This should keep us dry to begin next week. Temperatures look to slowly warm as cold arctic air continues to linger to our northeast. There are some signs that we should return to near- or even above-average temperatures by the second week of May.
Usual temperature range for this period Highs: 7 to 22 C Lows: -4 to 7 C
