Last week’s forecast, once again, didn’t play out quite as expected. While it wasn’t a total bust, the forecast slowly fell apart as the main weather makers ended up falling into a pattern that was not initially forecast. This turned out to be a good thing for our region as the main storm track shifted significantly southward, keeping most of southern and central Manitoba high and dry.
What has been happening for the last week or so is that we have been stuck in a split flow. Areas of low pressure are forming to our west, strengthening; then, as they move east, they are either breaking apart into two systems, or the southern storm track captures the storm system. This split flow looks as if it will continue for much of this forecast period.
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The difficult part of this type of pattern is predicting cloud cover. Overall it looks like we’ll be mostly dry, but cloud cover from both the northern and southern systems could affect us; the problem is trying to figure out just how much cloud there will be. With a weak flow across our region, any clouds that do develop will be tough to move out. If we see more sun than clouds, then temperatures will be in the +10 C range; too much cloud and highs will struggle to make it to +5 C. The first split system is forecast to move through Wednesday. This system looks to be the weakest, bringing a mix of sun and clouds with a small chance of showers, mostly over northern regions. This system will be followed by a second slightly stronger system on Friday and Saturday. Expect more clouds than sun, along with a good chance for some scattered showers, especially on Saturday as a weak cold front slides through. Friday could be the warmest day of this forecast period as mild air works northward ahead of the system. The weather models then bring another area of low pressure into our region by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This low is forecast to take a more southerly route, bringing a higher chance of rain to southern and central regions. Temperatures look to be warm ahead of this system on Monday and Tuesday, with daytime highs forecast to be around 10 C, depending once again on the amount of sunshine.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -3 to +9 C; lows, -16 to -1 C.
