As the weather models predicted last week, a strong area of low pressure in both the lower and upper levels of the atmosphere has developed to our east over the Great Lakes. At first it looked like this low would be smaller and farther east, only bringing us a short shot of cold air, but it ended up becoming quite large and now we’ll have to deal with colder-than-average conditions at least until the weekend, maybe even a little longer.
The two main weather models, American and U.K., are handling the eastern upper low a little differently. The American model is stalling the low over northern Ontario until at least Friday or Saturday. This will keep us in a cool northerly flow with scattered clouds as pieces of energy rotate around this large low. Daytime highs will only be in the +2 to +6 C range and overnight lows around -5 C. Eastern regions will be the coolest, with temperatures moderating the farther west you go. The U.K. model moves the upper low out more quickly, allowing milder air to begin building in by Friday.
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Over the weekend we should see temperatures moderate a little bit as the upper low finally weakens and slides farther east. Temperatures will slowly moderate over the weekend, with highs pushing the 10 C mark by Sunday. The one positive will be that the winds should be light over the weekend.
For the first half of next week, the models show an area of low pressure developing to our west. A mild southerly flow will develop ahead of this low, allowing for temperatures to climb back up toward the 20 C mark by Wednesday. Along with the milder air will come increasing humidity and the chance of showers or thundershowers by Wednesday. Further ahead, it looks like we may be entering a more summer-like pattern, with warm but wetter conditions moving in.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +6 to +20 C; lows, -5 to +5 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 20 per cent.
