Last week’s forecast played out fairly well. We saw frigid arctic air move in during the first part of the forecast, and while the second half didn’t happen exactly as forecast, temperatures remained mostly on the colder side as winter maintained its grip on our region.
For this forecast period I would like to say that we won’t see any more snow, but to tell the truth, I am not sure about that. The models are starting to jump around with their forecasts, which I will take as a good sign. This can mean that the overall pattern might be changing, but I think it is more likely due to spring trying to make some inroads. Either way, confidence in this forecast period is low.
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To begin this forecast period, the weather models show an area of arctic high pressure sliding by to our northeast. It should be far enough north to allow some milder air into our region, but close enough that it will not be that warm. Expect daytime highs around -8 C with overnight lows falling to around -18 C. By Friday the models keep showing a storm system developing to our southwest and then kicking northeastward. Sometimes these lows stay to our south; other times they push farther north. Again, confidence is low, but we will need to keep an eye on this potential system.
The week of March 7 looks to be dominated by more arctic air working its way southward. These highs look to drop southward into B.C. before tracking eastward. These highs should keep any storm systems and snow to our south but will continue our pattern of below-average temperatures. Their track should help to moderate the temperatures a little bit, and this, along with the increasing sunlight and sun strength, should take some of the edge off of this cold weather. It looks like daytime highs will be in the -6 to -10 C range with overnight lows falling to around -20 C.
Looking further ahead there are still no signs of a significant warm-up, but as we work our way deeper into March these warm-ups can literally spring up at any time.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -13 to -1 C; lows, -26 to -10 C.
