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Forecast: Plenty of clouds and unsettled weather

Issued March 19, 2018: Covering the period from March 21 to March 28, 2018

This map shows the current long-range temperature forecast for April and June according to the CFS weather model. April is expected to be cooler than average for much of Alberta and Saskatchewan, with near-average temperatures over Manitoba. June’s forecast is for warmth right across the Prairies, with the warmest weather expected over Manitoba.

The general placements of the main weather features were handled well by the weather models during the last forecast period, but as usual, the devil was in the details. A persistent flow of dry air from the departing high last week allowed overnight temperatures to become fairly cool. This, combined with the fresh snowpack, helped to keep daytime highs a little cooler than expected.

The slow spring melt looks like it will continue during this forecast period as our predominant sunny skies of late turn mostly cloudy. This is due to a large trough of low pressure that is forecast to move in off the Pacific on Thursday and Friday. The trough will begin to pull up some milder air ahead of it, but we will also see partly to mostly cloudy skies. The result will be daytime highs around +3 C with overnight lows around the -10 C mark.

This trough will spin up several areas of low pressure, with the first forecast to move across the U.S. Midwest on Friday and the second low forecasted to track across the central Prairies on Saturday and Sunday. For southern and central regions of Manitoba it currently looks like we will miss out on most of the precipitation from these two systems. We will likely see some flurries or showers on Saturday and Sunday, with the best chances of any significant amounts staying to our south and north.

A third area of low pressure is then forecast to take shape over Colorado on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Current indications are that this low should stay to our south, but as usual, we always need to keep an eye on these systems, especially at this time of the year. Temperatures look to stay seasonable, with daytime highs in the +2 to +5 C range and overnight lows around -10 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -7 to +6 C; lows, -19 to -7 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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