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Warm with a chance of thunderstorms

Forecast for Aug. 21-28, 2013

Temperatures warmed up as predicted over the last forecast period, but the overall weather pattern didn’t quite play out as expected.

The upper ridge of high pressure was slower in developing and pushing east. This allowed a few weak upper level systems to zip through southern and central Manitoba last weekend, bringing clouds and triggering a few thunderstorms. This in turn kept temperatures a little cooler and threw off the rest of the forecast.

For this forecast period, after a hot start to the week we’ll see typical summerlike temperatures during the middle of the week, as a weak cold front pushes through late on Tuesday or early Wednesday. Little if any precipitation is expected with this front and highs will drop into the mid-20s under plenty of sunshine.

The upper ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild a little bit toward the weekend. This should allow temperatures to warm back into the upper 20s, with the odd 30 C reading not out of the question. Since we’ll be on the northern edge of this upper high there will be the continued potential for thunderstorms to ride over the ridge, especially at night.

Certainty in next week’s forecast is not that high, as the models are not in good agreement. Currently it looks as though upper high pressure will continue to dominate central North America, bringing with it plenty of warm air. At the surface it looks like low pressure will dominate, which means good chances for showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day next week. Along with the warm temperatures, expect plenty of humidity, which will make it feel even hotter. All in all, it looks like we’ll have a very summerlike ending to what most consider the end of summer.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 19 to 29 C; lows, 6 to 15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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