Forecast: Models confident in high pressure

Issued July 31, 2017 – Covering the period from August 2 to August 9, 2017

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30-day period ending on July 26. Looking at the map you can see how the main storm track across the northern Prairies brought near-to above-average amounts of rain to northern agricultural regions. Scattered thunderstorms brought near-to above-average amounts to southwestern Manitoba along with south-central Alberta. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions prevailed with a large portion of southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and west-central Manitoba seeing less than 40 per cent of average precipitation during this period.

With the exception of a few timing issues, last week’s forecast was pretty decent as high pressure dominated the picture, bringing with it the warmest weather of the summer. This forecast period looks to begin with a little break from the hot, muggy weather, though that break may be short lived as it appears likely that the hot weather will be moving back in.

This forecast period begins with our region under a predominantly northwesterly flow. An area of low pressure will be working its way to our southeast on Wednesday and should be out of our region by early Thursday. Behind this low we will see high pressure building in from the northwest, which will bring mainly sunny skies on Thursday and Friday along with seasonal temperatures and lower humidities.

Over the weekend this high will be well to our southwest, which will place us in a more westerly flow. A second area of high pressure is then forecasted to slowly move in from the west. Overall, we should see more sun than clouds on the weekend, along with a continuation of seasonable temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the mid- to upper 20s with overnight lows in the low teens. We could see a few scattered showers and weak thundershowers over the first part of the weekend, as the southerly flow on the back side of this southern high pumps a bit more humidity into our region. The western high will then move in by Monday bringing slightly drier air with it.

This second high will slide by and then stall out to our southeast early next week. It looks as though this will set up a fairly long period of warm, dry weather for next week. We’ll slowly see winds switch to the south or southwest during the week which will help to bring in warm air. Combine this with plenty of sunshine and we should expect temperatures to be in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of next week, with little chance for any rain.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 20 to 30 C, Lows: 10 to 16 C

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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