Forecast: High pressure set to dominate for the next few days

Issued July 24, 2017 – Covering the period from July 26 to August 2, 2017

This issue’s map is rather interesting as it shows the average date when the maximum temperature for the year occurs throughout the United States and Canada. Looking at the Canadian Prairies you can see that the main grassland region typically experiences the warmest temperatures of the year in late July and early August. Farther north the warmest temperatures occur in mid- to late July.

So far this summer forecasting the weather has been tough, to say the least. We’ve basically been in a battle between a ridge of high pressure to our southwest and an active storm track to our north. Every time the weather models predict that the ridge of high pressure will win out, a storm system has come along and flattened the ridge.

This forecast period, for the first time in a long while, looks as if it will be straightforward, with high pressure dominating the picture. The first area of high pressure will build in on Wednesday and will bring mainly sunny skies, light winds, and warm temperatures until Friday. Expect daytime highs in the 30 C range with overnight lows in the mid-teens. Late Friday or sometime on Saturday an area of low pressure is forecasted to cross northern Manitoba. This low will bring a weak cold front through the region. I don’t think we’ll see any real change in temperatures, but we could see the odd thundershower.

A second area of high pressure is then forecasted to begin moving in from the west late on Saturday. This will bring another several-day period of mainly sunny skies, light winds, and warm temperatures. We should see sunny and dry conditions right through until Tuesday of next week.

At this point the weather models are showing a second area of low pressure moving through the north-central Prairies. This low is currently forecasted to take a slightly more southerly route. This will allow the low to pull up some hot, humid air into our region beginning on Monday. Expect daytime highs to push into the low 30s with extreme southwestern regions possibly seeing highs in the mid-30s. With the increase in humidity and instability associated with the northern low there will be a good chance for scattered thunderstorms beginning on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 21 to 30 C, Lows: 10 to 17 C

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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