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Last week’s forecast didn’t quite play out as expected, but it was close. The big thing that affected the forecast was the positioning of the area of high pressure that slid down from the Arctic. Instead of moving directly over Manitoba it shifted to the east by a few hundred kilometres. This allowed the western low to push farther east than expected, bringing more clouds and wind, especially over western regions.

For this forecast period it looks like a very similar pattern will take place. By Wednesday, the last piece of energy from the western area of low pressure will be pushing through, bringing clouds and some showers. Once this low moves out, arctic high pressure will begin to sag southward. Exactly how far south it will make it is a little uncertain, but we’ll likely see cooler temperatures on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, with highs only in the low to mid-teens.

By late in the weekend the weather models show a large area of low pressure once again developing to our west. Whether this low will be able to affect our region will depend on the positioning and strength of the arctic high. Currently, the models show most of the energy from this system staying well to our south. This should result in partly cloudy skies along with high temperatures in the mid- to upper teens to start next week.

The weather for next week looks really pleasant, with high pressure dominating and bringing plenty of sunshine along with slowly warming temperatures. We should see high temperatures making it into the low 20s by late in the week, with overnight lows around the 10 C mark.

Looking further ahead the weather models show a relatively quiet pattern with no large storm systems hitting us. Temperatures look to be mild, with highs forecasted to be in the low 20s.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 9 to 23 C; lows, -3 to +7 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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