Forecast: Winter arrives with a vengeance

Issued December 5, 2016 – Covering the period from December 7 to December 14, 2016

It seems like each week, forecasts start out the same, and this week is no exception. Last week’s forecast did a pretty good job, and this week’s forecast is starting off with a storm system affecting some or all of southern and central Manitoba. A strong area of low pressure will likely depart southern Manitoba

Forecast: Stormy pattern trying to develop

Issued November 28, 2016 – Covering the period from November 30 to December 7, 2016

Once again the weather models got the general pattern correct, but as usual, the weather is in the details. Last week’s weather models showed another Colorado low developing and tracking south of us during the first half of the week. Fast-forward a few days and now that same Colorado low is expected to spin out


Forecast: Pattern expected to shift, but just slightly

Issued November 21, 2016 – Covering the period from November 23 to November 30, 2016

Last week’s forecast was a little bit of a bust. The forecasted storm system did form as expected, but by last Wednesday, the weather models had come to an agreement on a much more southerly path and that is what ended up happening. As a result, no significant snow fell across southern or central Manitoba

Forecast: Winter storm with shift in patterns?

Issued November 14, 2016 – Covering the period from November 16 to November 23, 2016

After a record-breaking warm first half of November, it’s looking more and more like we’ll see a shift in the overall weather pattern during this forecast period. The big question is whether or not this shift will be accompanied by the first big winter storm of the year. The weather models have been fairly consistent


Forecast: Late-fall heat wave continues

Issued November 7, 2016 – Covering the period from November 9 to November 16, 2016

The general weather pattern hasn’t changed much over the last week across North America. A large area of high pressure is situated over central North America, with a large area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. This means we will be seeing a continuation of our warm and relatively dry weather for at

Forecast: Warm fall weather to continue

Issued October 31, 2016 – Covering the period from November 2 to November 9, 2016

I’m not sure if this will be a good-news or bad-news forecast. With many regions having wet fields, a number of farmers to whom I’ve spoken want cold weather to move in so the ground can freeze up. If you’re in that boat, then this will not be a great forecast. As usual, confidence in


Forecast: Mild autumn weather to continue

Issued October 24, 2016 – Covering the period from October 26 to November 2, 2016

Another tough forecast period coming up — not because of any strong storm systems, but rather because we appear to be stuck with a weak steering flow, along with fairly weak weather systems. Add these together and they make for tough day-to-day forecasting. Last week’s weather was much the same, and while the overall forecast

Forecast: Chances of rain beyond the weekend

Issued October 17, 2016 – Covering the period from October 19 to October 26, 2016

Not that this summer’s weather was very predictable, but fall and spring tend to be notorious periods for accurate forecasting. During these periods, the atmosphere is changing due to the rapid shift in incoming solar radiation (that is, sunlight). We saw this over the last forecast period, as a western low developed as expected, but


Forecast: Milder weather moving back in

Issued October 10, 2016 – Covering the period from October 12 to October 19, 2016

Last week’s large and dominating upper low developed as expected, bringing significant amounts of rain and even some snow to western and northern regions. Believe it or not, high pressure did move in behind this system, but the high contained a lot of low clouds that kept daytime highs cooler than expected and overnight lows

Forecast: Much cooler weather moving in

Issued October 3, 2016 – Covering the period from October 5 to October 12, 2016

Once again, weather models did a good job predicting major weather makers over the last week, but as we have seen several times over the past months, the models struggled with the timing of these systems. The strong area of low pressure that was forecast to develop to our west last weekend and then move