Forecast: Winter storm with shift in patterns?

Issued November 14, 2016 – Covering the period from November 16 to November 23, 2016

After a record-breaking warm first half of November, it’s looking more and more like we’ll see a shift in the overall weather pattern during this forecast period. The big question is whether or not this shift will be accompanied by the first big winter storm of the year.

The weather models have been fairly consistent in developing a powerful Colorado low for several model runs now.

This low is forecasted to begin developing to our southwest around the middle of the week and then track to the northeast on Friday. As is fairly typical for these storm systems, the weather models are bouncing back and forth on just where the low will track. Sometimes it has the heaviest precipitation over western regions, then over eastern regions, and sometimes the models have the storm system just clipping us to our south. Needless to say, this system bears watching.

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Currently, it looks like there will be a relatively wide swath of heavy snow with this system that will fall somewhere within this region on Friday and into Saturday. Amounts in some regions could be as high as 20 cm, depending on how much warm air is pulled in ahead of the system, which will determine if the precipitation begins as rain or snow. Winds also look to be very strong out of the north, with gusts forecasted to be in the 60 km/h range.

This storm system will move off to the east by Sunday, pulling in colder air behind it. Areas that do see significant snow will see overnight lows drop into the minus teens on Sunday and Monday. Daytime highs will also be significantly cooler, whether your region sees snow or not. The weather models are predicting daytime temperatures to be in the -2 to -6 C range. While that’s only slightly below average, it will feel pretty cold given the warm start to the month.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -9 to 3 C; lows: -18 to -4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 95 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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