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Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Forecast: Major shift in weather pattern ahead?

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FORECAST | Issued Nov. 25, 2021, covering the period from Dec. 1 to 8, 2021

I wouldn’t say last issue’s forecast was spot on, as it didn’t do very well on the details. What was accurate was the switch from an active relatively stormy pattern to a much quieter pattern. This forecast period faces a lot of uncertainty as the weather models have been bouncing back and forth between warm,
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Active pattern calms down

Forecast covering the period from Nov. 24 to Dec. 1

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The first part of my last forecast was not too bad, but things fell apart a little bit during the second half. This is fairly typical not only for this time of the year, but also when we have a fairly active storm pattern.  For this forecast period, it looks like the active pattern we
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Several chances for more light snow

Forecast covering the period from Nov. 17 to Nov. 24

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The weather models were able to successfully predict last week’s snowstorm that brought this season’s first significant snowfall. Originally, the weather models had most of the snow falling to our south and east, but a bit of a northward shift in the trough of low pressure resulted in winter moving in and us receiving some
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Storms staying to our south?

Forecast covering the period from Nov. 10 to Nov. 17

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The weather models kind of got their act together for last issue’s forecast. They correctly predicted the warm air that moved in around November 4 but were a little off as the warm temperatures stuck around longer than expected. This then translated into a shift forward in time for the remainder of the forecast. In
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Plenty of uncertainty in the outlook

Forecast covering the period from Nov. 3 to Nov. 10

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I think we knew it was going to happen. After nearly a month of very accurate computer-modelled medium-range forecasts, things slipped a bit. The forecasted trough of low pressure that was to move out of our region at the start of last issue’s forecast took much longer to move through, which impacted the timing and
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Typical late-fall weather ahead

Forecast covering the period from Oct. 27 to Nov. 3

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Well, last week’s forecast turned out pretty good, but it was not as good as the previous three forecasts. We did see the cool-down and as predicted by the weather models, with the eastern trough of low pressure winning out and our region seeing a return to near-average to even a little below-average temperatures. The latter part of
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Battle between fall and winter begins

Forecast covering the period from Oct. 20 to Oct. 27

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Don’t remember the last time I have seen the forecast and the actual weather play out nearly perfectly for three weeks in a row, but that is exactly what has happened over the last three weeks. Confidence in hitting four weeks in a row is not that high, though, as the weather models are starting
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Stormy start, then a return to warm?

Forecast covering the period from Oct. 13 to Oct. 20

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Like they say, all good things must come to an end. This saying only works if you have been enjoying this summer-in-October weather. If you are hoping for significant rainfall, then you just might be happy by the time you are reading this. For the second time in a row, the forecast played out very
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Summer keeps trying to hang on

Forecast covering the period from Oct. 6 to Oct. 13

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Last week’s forecast came about as close as you can to nailing it. We saw plenty of sunshine and warm to record-breaking-warm temperatures. The only parts that were off were the showers and thundershowers that impacted west-central Manitoba instead of eastern regions and the extended forecast that called for colder weather over the Thanksgiving long
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Other, Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Almost summer-like temperatures ahead

Forecast covering the period from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6

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For the first time in a while, my last forecast was pretty darned close. We saw the nice warm temperatures early on, the late-week/early-weekend cool-down, then the return of warm temperatures to begin this week. For this forecast period, it looks like the warm, almost summer-like temperatures will continue as we move into early October.

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