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Weather: Almost summer-like temperatures ahead

Forecast covering the period from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6

This map shows the 30-day percentage of average precipitation across the Prairies up to Sept. 22. With warmer-than- average temperatures across most regions in September, it is not surprising that precipitation has been below average across a large portion of the southern and central Prairies. The only area with above-average precipitation during this time frame was the Peace region in Alberta.

For the first time in a while, my last forecast was pretty darned close. We saw the nice warm temperatures early on, the late-week/early-weekend cool-down, then the return of warm temperatures to begin this week. For this forecast period, it looks like the warm, almost summer-like temperatures will continue as we move into early October.

To start it off, an area of low pressure, which helped to boost temperatures at the beginning of the week, will finally be pushing through our region. It looks like southern and central regions will stay in the warm sector of the low. This will allow temperatures to really soar, with daytime highs possibly flirting with records if we get enough sunshine. It does not look like there will be much in the way of precipitation with this low, with the best chances of rainfall expected to be over far-eastern and northern regions.

Normally we would see a push of cold air behind a low, especially in the fall, but the weather models show a ridge of high pressure quickly building to our west, then slowly pushing east through the weekend and into the first week of October. Expect mainly sunny skies and relatively light winds throughout this period. Temperatures will start off in the upper teens on Thursday and Friday, with daytime highs climbing by a couple of degrees each day after that. Should this forecast hold, we could see highs in the upper 20s by Oct. 4 or 5, especially over western regions. These could once again come close to record highs in some areas. Overnight lows will be mild, but for this time of the year, “mild” means in the 5 to 10 C range. Whether any records get broken or not, temperatures look to be running well above the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

For those of you getting tired of warm temperatures, the models hint at a good push of cold air just in time for Thanksgiving. As always, that is a long way off and a lot can change between now and then.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 10 to 21 C; lows, -1 to +8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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