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Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: No extreme cold or big storms expected

Forecast issued December 2, covering the period from December 7 to December 14, 2022

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The first half of last issue’s forecast played out pretty darned close to what the weather models predicted. We saw a fairly strong area of low-pressure track through central Manitoba early in the forecast period, and this low was followed by a quick shot of colder air. The second low did develop and brought a
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Why Manitoba doesn’t see huge lake-effect snows

Unlike Lake Winnipeg, the Great Lakes are deep enough to store significant heat

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If you’re a weather nut like me, you likely heard about the extreme lake-effect snowfalls that recently hit parts of Ontario and New York state. Due to the nature of the Great Lakes, they can often see truly significant lake-effect snowfalls. In Manitoba, we too can see lake-effect snow, but not to the same extent.
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Colder to start, with chance of snow

Forecast issued November 25, covering the period from November 30 to December 7, 2022

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As we have seen with the last few forecasts, the weather models have been doing a good job with the overall weather pattern but are struggling with the details. Take last issue’s forecast: the overall pattern looked mild and dry, and that is exactly what we saw. But the timing of the smaller-scale features was
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Getting a sense of snowfall probabilities

A big storm with more than 30 cm of snow is a once-in-10-years kind of event

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The number of recent weather questions has dropped to nothing. Maybe we have answered all the weather questions! Whenever this happens and nothing major has occurred weather-wise in our neck of the woods, I like to look back at some of my weather articles from the last 19 years. That’s right, by the end of
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Understanding Alberta clippers and Colorado lows

The Rockies and the troposphere help set up peculiar curves

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Last spring and a few times this fall, the Prairies have seen several large winter storm systems. Most big fall or winter snowfalls come from areas of low pressure that develop to the lee of the Rocky Mountains. One area of development is over Alberta, producing what’s affectionately referred to as an Alberta clipper. The
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Northwesterly flow expected to develop

Forecast issued November 11, covering the period from November 16 to 23, 2022

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Weather models had a good handle on our last forecast period. They were correct about the development and overall movement of last week’s Colorado low. It developed as forecasted and ended up moving northeast in two waves, as expected. The first wave was early in the week; the second, late in the week. Timing of
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Chance of stormy weather but lots of uncertainty

Forecast issued November 4, covering the period from November 9 to 16, 2022

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What is the old saying? Don’t like the weather? Wait a minute. That seems totally appropriate for our current weather pattern.  We are in a very active pattern as the persistent ridge of high pressure that brought warm fall weather across Western Canada has collapsed and, in its place, we have a large trough of
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Lots of disagreement on early winter weather predictions

Depending on what model you’re looking at, it’s anyone’s guess this winter

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I keep promising to take a final look at this year’s frost data, but here we are at the end of another month. Though there are a couple days left in October as I write this, by the time you read it we will already be a couple of days into November. If I wait
Weather Vane by Daniel Bezte
Weather, Weather Vane

Weather: Looking for the start of winter

Forecast issued October 28, covering the period from November 2 to November 9, 2022

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Last issue’s forecast turned out not too badly, with only a couple of wrinkles. There was a faster than expected return to mild temperatures and instead of a southern low, the western ridge rebounded, bringing nice warm fall weather through the last weekend of October. As we head into November, we will see average daytime

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