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A crop scout walks a soybean field in Allen County in northeastern Indiana on Aug. 19, 2019, during the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
Grain Markets, Markets

Soy’s struggles could be canola’s gain

Expectations for U.S. soybean carryout may tighten further

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The main part of harvest is set to begin for canola, so you might think the influx of new crop into the market would cause prices to come down. But like any good friend, soyoil is there to give canola prices a pick-me-up. While the ICE futures November canola contract and October Chicago soyoil went
Harvest watch continues
Grain Markets, Markets

Harvest watch continues

Expert’s Radar: After an extremely variable growing season, nobody’s quite sure where production will be

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Harvest is ongoing just about everywhere — the three oak trees on my front yard grew a good crop of acorns this year, with the pitter-patter of falling acorns and chirping of squirrels becoming a near constant sound. The sheer number of squirrels scrambling to bring food for the winter is impressive to say the
Hefty U.S. soybean crush propels Canadian canola upward
Grain Markets, Markets

Hefty U.S. soybean crush propels Canadian canola upward

Despite rising with soy, traders say canola is still too cheap

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The aggressive use of soybeans in the United States for biofuel production was squarely behind the sharp upticks in canola prices for the week ended Aug. 17 on the Intercontinental Exchange. The U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association released its monthly report on Aug. 15, showing 173.3 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in July. Not
Wheat-driven buzz
Grain Markets, Markets

Wheat-driven buzz

Expert’s Radar: Other nations’ output may sway prices at home

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While cleaning out the eavestroughs the other day, I unwittingly disturbed a hidden wasp nest, resulting in at least half a dozen stings on my hands and face. The pain eventually subsided but dealing with the nest turned out to be a bit more difficult than expected as they had found a crack between the
Canola traders will get their first official estimates of this year’s domestic canola crop from Statistics Canada on Aug. 29.
Grain Markets, Markets

Grain trade expects lower canola yields

Harvest pressures may drag on price rallies

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Harvest operations are in their early stages across Western Canada, leaving the canola market in a somewhat precarious position awaiting news and biding time until there’s a clearer picture on the size of this year’s crop. The November contract held in a rather narrow $30 per tonne range in early August, between $770 and $800,
Much like a summer storm hitting one field and leaving another dry only a few miles down the road, markets could go either way right now.
Markets, Weather

Rolling the dice on forecasts

Expert's Radar: Definite market directions are hard to pin down

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A severe weather system rolling across the Prairies triggered an alert on my phone the other day. Television and radio programs also interrupted with warnings to take precautions. The sun was still shining at the time, but the rumble of thunder from the approaching storm could easily be heard. My location caught only the edge
Canola falls in pre-harvest wait
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola falls in pre-harvest wait

Weather conditions batter against speculation, demand lull

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ICE Futures canola contracts moved lower as the calendar flipped to the new 2023-24 crop year, but managed to uncover support in the early days of August. While Prairie weather remains a major market driver, speculative positioning and a lack of significant commercial demand weighed on values. November canola fell below its 20-day moving average
Canola prices appear to be firmly entrenched to stay above $800 per tonne for now.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola markets in wait-and-see mode

Production will likely fall below expectations

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Canola prices spent the last full week of July vacillating between increases and decreases as the market shifted into a wait-and-see mode on this year’s crop on the Canadian Prairies. There’s zero doubt the 2023-24 canola harvest won’t make the 18.8 million tonnes projected by Agriculture and Agri-food Canada. Drought and excessive heat across most
Just as there are real-time maps that can show you where traffic is slowed by construction, there are bearish warning signs in canola markets.
Grain Markets, Markets

Reading the roadmaps of the grain market

Expert’s Radar: Beware of ‘construction’ signs

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I recently drove back and forth from Winnipeg to the Turtle Mountains in southwestern Manitoba. It’s about a three-hour drive, or three-and-a-half with the required ice cream stop. There are a few routes that head in the same general direction, so after running into construction on Highway 2 on the way down, we opted for
a field of flowering rapeseed
Grain Markets, Markets

Black Sea deal collapse lifts canola markets

The grain corridor deal collapse has spiked uncertainty over grain supply from Ukraine

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Over the past few months, Russia’s actions toward Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations regarding the Black Sea Grain Initiative are akin to a teenager threatening to leave home because they didn’t get their way. Most times, sooner or later, the kid relents, and all is back to what resembles normal. Maybe the parents bought

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