Barring a major catastrophe in the global oilseed market, the days of canola soaring to $1,200 per tonne are destined for the history books.
With trading in the old crop July contract withering, it careened downward by almost $320 after hitting its high of $1,219 per tonne.
New crop November canola plummeted nearly $236/tonne, sitting at $892.10 at the close on June 29. A year ago, the contract stood at $608.50, so despite the significant pull back, November is still doing well.
Read Also
Canola market sees up and down week
Canola futures endured a topsy-turvy week ended July 17, 2025, with most ICE contracts seeing net gains of about C$15 per tonne.
June 30 was the first notice day for July futures so any relevance July canola might have would be small at best. Focus is now squarely planted on November, as the 2022/23 crop develops across the Canadian Prairies.
It’s still early to deem this year’s crop a success – or failure – but recent rains have given it the chance denied last summer. On the eastern Prairies, where conditions have been excessively wet, flea beetles, fungus and disease have affected the canola crop. The situation wasn’t helped when farmers had difficulty buying chemical to spray due to supply chain issues.
Hopes for the crop are not overly spectacular. The markets and producers have pinned their outlook on average yields. That alone would be a tremendous improvement over last year’s disappointment.
Fluctuations in global crude oil prices will have a powerful say in the direction of vegetable oils. Widespread expectations of a worldwide economic recession have maneuvered crude toward a precipice. High oil prices that have been fueling inflation around the world appear set to step off the edge. Where crude goes, so will biofuels, and that means shifts in vegetable oil prices including canola.
Another factor in the Canadian oilseed’s decline has been the change in attitude throughout the vegetable oil market. Fears of tight global supplies have dissipated, even with the war in Ukraine impeding sunflower production and supply.
Indications of more massive soybean crops in South America and a hefty harvest in the United States will add pressure to the market, keeping a lid on any huge spikes.
The one big issue remaining for canola will be ending stocks. While projections point to improvement in the carryover, it will remain remarkably low for some time. That will continue to underpin prices until those stocks reach better levels.
