GFM Network News


Vice-Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands after signing Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade agreement during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington, January 15, 2020.

What does China do next?

No one knows if the promise of the Phase 1 deal will become reality

There are hopes in the markets that China will soon begin its US$40 billion in purchases of United States agricultural products, as outlined in the Phase 1 trade agreement. The positive feelings have been on the rise because Feb. 15 marks the day that Phase 1 officially comes into effect. However, there have been indications

Consumers stock up at a Singapore supermarket on Feb. 7, 2020 after the state raised its coronavirus outbreak alert to orange.

Risk-off trade sentiment outweighing market fundamentals

Crops still out on the fields cast clouds over StatsCan’s latest data

The novel coronavirus epidemic accounted for many of the headlines moving the grain and oilseed markets during the first week of February, with traders uncertain over what the outbreak will do to the global economy and demand for food. China is a major driver of international markets, and an economic slowdown there will cause ripple effects elsewhere. Equity,


U.S. spring wheat May-August precipitation (inches).

Markets watch the weather

Rain makes grain, and it’s one of the most volatile variables for Prairie farms

Price and yield are the two biggest determinants of farm revenue. Using farming software to run simulations and what-if scenarios shows that even a modest change in commodity prices or crop yields can have a big impact on gross margins and the bottom line. This makes sense, given revenues are top line 100-cent dollars. While

A Chinese ship is loaded with soybeans at the Brazilian Port of Santos.

Crush margins, currency, charts show support for canola futures

South American soybean production could bring pressure

Canola values were well supported during the first full trading week of 2020 and have the potential to rally $10-$15 higher. Technical charts have projected canola values reaching $490-$495 per tonne. Some growers have throttled back on selling their product to wait and see if this price range will be realized. Barring sharp sell-offs in

While every year presents its own challenges and opportunities, a number of themes kept reappearing with only slight variations.

Looking back at the decade that was in grain markets

As the ‘teens come to a close, it’s been 10 years of enormous change

The more things change, the more they stay the same.’ There was no shortage of market moving topics to write about over the past decade, from the demise of the Canadian Wheat Board to the rise of tweet-based international diplomacy, but did anything really change? Grain and oilseed prices had their ups and downs, but



Lack of a China-U.S. trade deal is causing the market to remain moribund, likely for the rest of the year.

Trade stalemate leaves markets unmoving

Lack of rain in South America could eventually shake things up

Canola values will likely remain range-bound between $455 and $467 for the remainder of the year. That’s largely due to the stalemate between the United States and China regarding a trade deal, and also due to uncertain growing conditions in South America and Australia. On Nov. 27, U.S. President Donald Trump signed congressional legislation in support

With the number of days in harvest 2019 diminishing, canola prices have had a recent lift.

As snow falls, canola market rises

Weather alone won’t sustain canola’s rally for long

An early winter storm on the western Prairies and persistent cool and wet conditions to the east put the brakes on harvest operations during the first few days of October, with canola futures finding some support on the back of adverse weather. After holding within a sideways trading range for the past three months, the


Harvest setbacks bring uncertainty to grain markets

Canola purchases from the EU have been supportive

Canola values remained sluggish and rangebound during the week ended Sept. 27, dampened by large carry-out stocks and uncertainty regarding 2019 production volumes. As harvest drags out across the Prairies, challenging weather conditions could begin to harm crop quality. While Statistics Canada earlier in the month predicted canola production to be around 19.358 million tonnes,

USDA’s recalculations toss anvil to markets

Canola remains rangebound as harvest looms

A surprisingly large corn production estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture gave North American grain and oilseed markets a jolt during the week ended Aug. 15. Corn and wheat prices fell in response to the updated data, while oilseeds had a more subdued response. After a soggy start to the U.S. growing season, investors