GFM Network News


Consensus in the grain trade suggests StatsCan’s latest estimate predicting a 14.7-million-tonne canola crop this year will turn out to be generous in hindsight.

Canola demand rationing already underway

ICE November canola has dipped to around the $850-per-tonne mark for now

ICE Futures canola contracts fell sharply lower during the week ended Sept. 10, hitting their weakest levels in a month as speculative profit-taking weighed on the market. From a chart standpoint, November canola fell below both its 20- and 50-day moving averages during the week, which was bearish from a technical standpoint. However, it found some support around



Canola mostly pulls back after StatsCan estimates

Canola mostly pulls back after StatsCan estimates

FUTURES | Canola also remains subject to the Chicago soy complex’s complexities

Any hopes of canola getting a bounce on ICE Futures from Statistics Canada’s production report on Aug. 30 were largely dashed. The Canadian oilseed, for the most part, remained lower in the aftermath of the long-awaited report. The pattern repeated itself for a few days; for most of a session canola was pulled down by

A grasshopper perches on a drought-stressed spring wheat plant near Bowdon, N.D., about 220 km south of Boissevain, on July 28.

Expectations low for canola, wheat estimates

ICE canola awaits direction, while MGEX spring wheat has plateaued

This year’s drought seriously cut into Canadian crop production, although the full extent of the damage remains unknown as harvest operations continue across the Prairies. That production uncertainty has been a supportive feature in the canola market for some time and should continue to be. That said, the upside may be limited, as demand is

Oilseed traders and analysts have heard anecdotal reports of single-digit yields from canola growers.

Canola remains the follower

Prices still must reflect that there won’t be enough canola to go around

Canola futures took a tumble at the end of this week as prices on the Chicago soy complex pulled back, with declines in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil adding to the mix. The Canadian oilseed demonstrated some independent strength as price rationing propelled values higher earlier in the week, but weakness in the other


Any rain now will be too little, too late, and could just exacerbate the problem by delaying harvest operations.

Poor yield expectations starting to hit canola market

While estimates still vary, canola yields are expected to fall short of initial estimates

The ICE Futures canola market moved steadily higher during the first week of the new 2021-22 crop year, recovering from one-month lows as the disappointing state of this year’s crop became clearer. Opinions on just how small canola production will be this year are still wide ranging, but the 19.9-million-tonne preliminary estimate from Agriculture and


How low will canola yield go?

How low will canola yield go?

Canola has certainly suffered under drought. How much is yet to be seen

Hot and dry weather across most of the major North American growing regions remained the major topic of discussion in the grain and oilseed futures markets during the last week of July. The drought will certainly cut into the size of this year’s canola crop, but by how much? The 19.9-million-tonne forecast by Agriculture and


The general consensus within Canada’s grain trade is that Western Canada’s crops are unlikely to see much improvement from current conditions at this time.

Latest federal supply/demand numbers way above expectations

Canola’s underlying fundamentals remain supportive

The ICE Futures canola market fell off its highs during the week ended July 23 as a slight improvement in Prairie weather conditions was enough to spark a selloff. Activity in outside markets contributed to the losses, but the underlying fundamentals remain supportive for the Canadian oilseed and canola managed to find its legs as

Strategie Grains lifts EU grain crop and export forecasts

Strategie Grains lifts EU grain crop and export forecasts

Consultant Strategie Grains has further increased its monthly production forecasts for all three major cereals in the European Union in the current 2021-22 season, which it said will help the bloc to meet higher projected demand on the global market. However, the consultancy also echoed mounting concerns over the potential impact on grain quality from