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Canola’s pullback snaps in a big way
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola’s pullback snaps in a big way

Expect further significant swings in coming weeks

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When the downturn in ICE Futures canola finally gave way, it did so with a measure of gusto. The old-crop July contract touched its daily trading limit of $30 per tonne on May 27, before it eased back to increase by $24.40 on the day. New-crop positions also experienced jumps of more than $20. This
Recent rain may help crops with germination but so far isn’t likely to improve dryness at subsoil levels.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola trade’s focus turns now to new-crop prospects

A stronger loonie may limit export interest

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The ICE Futures canola market was mixed during the week ended May 21, with the bias lower in the most active new-crop months as commercial traders turn their attention away from the volatile old-crop July contract. July canola futures saw both limit-up and limit-down moves during the week, as traders on both sides of the
The supply concerns now facing canola could become more problematic if there’s little rain to be had in coming weeks.
Grain Markets, Markets

Days are numbered for old-crop canola

July canola is now way down off that $1,000-plus peak

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It has been downhill for old-crop canola after it topped the $1,000-per-tonne mark last week. On May 13, the July contract closed at $857.30, tumbling nearly $150 on the week. During its dramatic slide, July bottomed out at ICE Futures’ daily limit three times at the close, including hitting the expanded limit of $45 per
“When you have a basis that’s positive it’s something, but when it’s $100 a tonne that’s remarkable.” – Bill Craddock.
Grain Markets, News

Old-crop canola price records keep falling

New-crop prices are strong, but how much will farmers sell given rising drought fears?

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Bill Craddock has seen a lot in his 52 years speculating in grain futures markets, but never $1,000-a-tonne canola on the crusher’s driveway — until last week that is. On May 5 Manitoba farmers could lock in canola at $1,021 a tonne ($23.15 a bushel) with Altona crusher Bunge for delivery Aug. 1 to 15,
If canola continues to disappear at its current rate, we would wind up with available supplies of negative half a million tonnes by the time a new crop is ready.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola values try to ration demand as stocks tighten

Chicago soy and corn are running at eight-year-plus highs

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The ICE Futures canola market continued its meteoric rise during the first trading week of May, as the ongoing story of tight supplies remained supportive. Statistics Canada confirmed the tightening supply situation with its latest stocks report, released May 7. Total canola supplies in the country as of March 31 were pegged at only 6.6
Wheat was expected to be the big loser to canola in the battle for Prairie acres, ahead of StatsCan’s latest estimates.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola’s underlying supports remain unshakeable for now

U.S. soy and corn values are also hitting multi-year highs

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Another week, another round of record highs in the ICE Futures canola market, as prices kept exploring uncharted waters. The last time canola rallied to the same extent was in 2008, but at that time the market topped out more than $100 per tonne below current levels. The 2008 rally was largely driven by speculative
Multiple factors push canola prices upward
Grain Markets, Markets

Multiple factors push canola prices upward

Buyers are bent on sweeping out whatever’s left in bins

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There was little doubt canola was to have been on the upswing for most of this week. Signs of forthcoming gains were evident on April 9 as prices moved well off of their lows, though canola contracts still finished that Friday with small declines. A number of factors have combined to rally canola this week.
Much of the Prairie region is heading into seeding experiencing varying levels of drought, which may be a factor guiding new-crop values in coming months.
Grain Markets, Markets

Old-crop canola trends upward through volatility

Traders’ attention is now focused on the new crop – and its potential limitations

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A ‘casino,’ a ‘craps table’ or just plain ‘crazy’ were some of the words traders and analysts used to try to explain activity in the ICE Futures canola market during the first full week of April. Futures saw some wild price swings on an hour-by-hour basis during the week ended April 9, but the general
Canola moved upwards in lockstep with soy futures after a surprising planting projections survey.
Grain Markets, Markets

Up limit spike points to more acres needed

A key USDA report shocked the market and resulted in prices moving upward

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Shock and awe rocked the markets on March 31 after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its prospective plantings report. The first survey-based projections for 2021 caught the markets largely off guard that Wednesday, which sent prices to their daily limit in several commodities. That not only included the soy complex and corn

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