There’s little doubt the planting of the 2018-19 U.S. winter wheat crop is off to what could be the slowest start in history. But the most jarring fact is that the lag appears to be at its worst in the top-producing state, Kansas, which brings the intended acreage — and thus production potential — under
Winter wheat planting lags in U.S.
The big question is if it’s weather related or a sign of shifting grower intentions
‘Group think’ let market watchers down
Markets were surprised by the latest optimistic yield expectations for corn and soy from USDA
Farmers, traders, and analysts alike were left shocked after the U.S. Department of Agriculture published its optimistic corn and soybean yields earlier this month, though the market’s narrow expectations going into the Aug. 10 report may carry some of the blame. Analysts were looking for USDA to lower the U.S. corn yield to 166.2 bushels
The rain dilemma for U.S. corn, soybeans
Localized storms are making widely used weather models less meaningful to the market
Rain has been falling across the U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt this month but crop ratings have been low or declining, a sign that some farmers may be getting too much moisture while others have parched fields. Because summer storms have been so localized, the two leading weather models used by traders may be little
U.S. weather scares funds out of their shorts
Hot and dry conditions throughout much of the U.S. are causing supply concerns
Speculators have turned bullish across all three Chicago and Minneapolis wheat contracts for the first time in over two years. Funds are also buying back gobs of corn and soybean contracts after being record or near-record short in recent weeks. Crops in the United States are extremely sensitive to weather at this time of year.
Corn sizzles, then fizzles
A major buyback by speculative funds drove the recent market action
Speculators axed a massive short position in the corn market within 11 days earlier this month. And what do they have now to show for it? Lower prices. Specs, usually hesitant to become buyers in such an oversupplied market, bought nearly one billion bushels of corn in the form of CBOT futures and options –
Is the corn market ready to rally on U.S. weather worries?
A cold, wet spring is giving way to what looks like a hot and dry summer
Corn futures prices have remained stubbornly low for the past three months despite heavy rain and cold weather complicating planting and early crop development. But the tide may be shifting as the summer is beginning under a warmer and drier regime. Driven partially by mounting U.S. weather concerns, July corn on June 7 broke above
China’s wheat hoard masks tightening in global market
Without China’s politically motivated stocks in the equation, supply would actually be tightening
World wheat supply is expected to hit record levels in 2017-18 for the fourth year in a row, but remove China from the equation and next year’s global wheat carry-out would be the lowest in four years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently projected world wheat ending stocks would rise to 258.29 million tonnes in
Funds all-time record short across CBOT grains, oilseeds
Speculators hit a milestone in the Chicago grains and oilseeds market in late April, as they have reached a new level of bearishness across all seven grains and oilseeds futures and options contracts. Combining corn, hard and soft red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, hedge funds and other
Slow start to U.S. corn planting may lead to tug of war with soy
Although technology allows farmers to plant faster than ever before, weather can still hinder progress
U.S. farmers are off to a slow start on corn plantings and even though it is still very early in the 2017 season, the numbers may already imply that total corn acres could be less than the 89.996 million that the market currently expects. The U.S. Department of Agriculture placed corn-planting progress at six per
India is the wild card in global wheat production and consumption
Some estimates are calling for an increase of 15 per cent, to 100 million tonnes for the looming harvest
India will be the first major wheat-growing country to harvest the 2017-18 crop, and most of its wheat will be cut by the time the U.S. Department of Agriculture rolls out its first production estimate in May. Despite the early glimpse this should provide to the wheat market, the Indian government’s data could actually downplay
Cyber-Savvy Farmer
