A cold, wet spring is giving way to what looks like a hot and dry summer
Corn futures prices have remained stubbornly low for the past three months despite heavy rain and cold weather complicating planting and early crop development. But the tide may be shifting as the summer is beginning under a warmer and drier regime. Driven partially by mounting U.S. weather concerns, July corn on June 7 broke above […] Read more
Without China’s politically motivated stocks in the equation, supply would actually be tightening
World wheat supply is expected to hit record levels in 2017-18 for the fourth year in a row, but remove China from the equation and next year’s global wheat carry-out would be the lowest in four years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently projected world wheat ending stocks would rise to 258.29 million tonnes in […] Read more
Speculators hit a milestone in the Chicago grains and oilseeds market in late April, as they have reached a new level of bearishness across all seven grains and oilseeds futures and options contracts. Combining corn, hard and soft red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, hedge funds and other […] Read more
Although technology allows farmers to plant faster than ever before, weather can still hinder progress
U.S. farmers are off to a slow start on corn plantings and even though it is still very early in the 2017 season, the numbers may already imply that total corn acres could be less than the 89.996 million that the market currently expects. The U.S. Department of Agriculture placed corn-planting progress at six per […] Read more
Some estimates are calling for an increase of 15 per cent, to 100 million tonnes for the looming harvest
India will be the first major wheat-growing country to harvest the 2017-18 crop, and most of its wheat will be cut by the time the U.S. Department of Agriculture rolls out its first production estimate in May. Despite the early glimpse this should provide to the wheat market, the Indian government’s data could actually downplay […] Read more
The numbers suggest crushers are beginning to oversupply the meal market
The United States has crushed an unprecedented amount of soybeans since the harvest began last fall, but there have not been as many buyers as processors had hoped for, and this could end up burdensome on domestic soybean supply. Data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association Feb. 15 showed that its members crushed 160.621 […] Read more
Record-high stockpiles and looming record crops from rivals are causing headwinds for the crop
The United States appears well on its way to exporting the largest volume of corn in nine years, but there will be some hurdles to overcome in order to meet the full expectation for the season. The United States is the world’s No. 1 source for corn and while not the primary form of domestic […] Read more
Switch away from wet cycle could set the stage for a significant recovery in the crop’s prospects
Soybean bulls have been excited over the excessive rains across Argentina’s Soybean Belt in recent weeks, but an expected flip to dry weather might wither their enthusiasm. It’s been wet in the core soybean region in Argentina – the global leader in soy product exports. Most areas picked up between one and two inches (25 […] Read more
The soybean-to-corn futures pricing ratio is far higher than it usually is at this time of year
It is almost certain that U.S. farmers will plant more soybeans in 2017 than ever before, but profitability indicators in the futures market give good reason to believe that this acreage could push much higher than what we have been prepared for. In its annual long-term projections published late last month, the U.S. Department of […] Read more
The current lull in shipments is exactly that, rather than a withdrawal from the market
If there is a silver lining to Brazil’s recent shortcomings in grain exports, the country is now more prepared than ever to pump out big volumes in 2017, perhaps to the dismay of its competitors. Brazil is the No. 1 and No. 2 shipper of soybeans and corn, respectively, but earlier this year, the drought-stricken […] Read more
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