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Stock market chart on LCD screen. Selective focus.

‘Group think’ let market watchers down

Markets were surprised by the latest optimistic yield expectations for corn and soy from USDA

Farmers, traders, and analysts alike were left shocked after the U.S. Department of Agriculture published its optimistic corn and soybean yields earlier this month, though the market’s narrow expectations going into the Aug. 10 report may carry some of the blame. Analysts were looking for USDA to lower the U.S. corn yield to 166.2 bushels […] Read more

The rain dilemma for U.S. corn, soybeans

Localized storms are making widely used weather models less meaningful to the market

Rain has been falling across the U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt this month but crop ratings have been low or declining, a sign that some farmers may be getting too much moisture while others have parched fields. Because summer storms have been so localized, the two leading weather models used by traders may be little […] Read more

U.S. weather scares funds out of their shorts

Hot and dry conditions throughout much of the U.S. are causing supply concerns

Speculators have turned bullish across all three Chicago and Minneapolis wheat contracts for the first time in over two years. Funds are also buying back gobs of corn and soybean contracts after being record or near-record short in recent weeks. Crops in the United States are extremely sensitive to weather at this time of year. […] Read more

Corn sizzles, then fizzles

A major buyback by speculative funds drove the recent market action

Speculators axed a massive short position in the corn market within 11 days earlier this month. And what do they have now to show for it? Lower prices. Specs, usually hesitant to become buyers in such an oversupplied market, bought nearly one billion bushels of corn in the form of CBOT futures and options – […] Read more

corn plants

Is the corn market ready to rally on U.S. weather worries?

A cold, wet spring is giving way to what looks like a hot and dry summer

Corn futures prices have remained stubbornly low for the past three months despite heavy rain and cold weather complicating planting and early crop development. But the tide may be shifting as the summer is beginning under a warmer and drier regime. Driven partially by mounting U.S. weather concerns, July corn on June 7 broke above […] Read more

China’s wheat hoard masks tightening in global market

Without China’s politically motivated stocks in the equation, supply would actually be tightening

World wheat supply is expected to hit record levels in 2017-18 for the fourth year in a row, but remove China from the equation and next year’s global wheat carry-out would be the lowest in four years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently projected world wheat ending stocks would rise to 258.29 million tonnes in […] Read more

Slow start to U.S. corn planting may lead to tug of war with soy

Although technology allows farmers to plant faster than ever before, weather can still hinder progress

U.S. farmers are off to a slow start on corn plantings and even though it is still very early in the 2017 season, the numbers may already imply that total corn acres could be less than the 89.996 million that the market currently expects. The U.S. Department of Agriculture placed corn-planting progress at six per […] Read more

India is the wild card in global wheat production and consumption

Some estimates are calling for an increase of 15 per cent, to 100 million tonnes for the looming harvest

India will be the first major wheat-growing country to harvest the 2017-18 crop, and most of its wheat will be cut by the time the U.S. Department of Agriculture rolls out its first production estimate in May. Despite the early glimpse this should provide to the wheat market, the Indian government’s data could actually downplay […] Read more

soybeans and soybean pods

Soybean bulls may not find a friend in U.S. crush

The numbers suggest crushers are beginning to oversupply the meal market

The United States has crushed an unprecedented amount of soybeans since the harvest began last fall, but there have not been as many buyers as processors had hoped for, and this could end up burdensome on domestic soybean supply. Data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association Feb. 15 showed that its members crushed 160.621 […] Read more