Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed significantly in the past couple of weeks, worrying some market participants that this is a hint of things to come. But perhaps they have forgotten that sluggish Chinese business is normal this time of year. It is possible that Chinese importers are aggressively avoiding U.S. beans at the […] Read more
Demand for U.S. soybeans remains stubbornly depressed due to high global stocks
The soy complex may be rallying on the Chicago Board of Trade, but the outlook for U.S. supply retains its bearish feel, despite significant losses to Argentina’s soybean crop amid parched conditions. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut domestic soybean exports to 2.1 billion bushels, some three per cent smaller than last year’s […] Read more
China may have just handed farmers in the U.S. Plains a good reason to maintain or increase the already elevated corn and soybean acreage this spring. On Feb. 4, China launched an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into imports of sorghum from the United States in a move that many analysts see as politically motivated. Regardless […] Read more
The market is closely watching U.S. soybean exports to see whether the 2017-18 campaign will stumble amid record global supply, and October’s data raises a red flag. U.S. corn and wheat demand is also staring down a global supply glut and stiff international competition, and October export volumes were some of the smallest in recent […] Read more
Market speculators are looking at ample supplies and sticking with their bets
There is simply too much supply in the world to shake speculators from their tremendously bearish view of Chicago-traded grain futures and options, and their hefty short stance still looms over the market. Combining net positions through Nov. 21 in CBOT corn and wheat, K.C. wheat, and Minneapolis-traded wheat futures and options, money managers hold […] Read more
Although robust world soybean demand and competitive advantages have allowed the United States to surpass early-season export forecasts for four years in a row, market watchers wonder if this is the year that will break the mould. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly soybean export figures have consistently met or exceeded analyst estimates so far. […] Read more
Acreage is up but production down in the latest USDA monthly crop production report
Just when analysts thought they had figured out the pattern in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s U.S. soybean forecasts, the agency’s latest estimate broke form and created even more uncertainty in the market. In its monthly U.S. crop production report on Oct. 19, USDA increased harvested area of the oilseed by 740,000 acres but lowered […] Read more
The big question is if it’s weather related or a sign of shifting grower intentions
There’s little doubt the planting of the 2018-19 U.S. winter wheat crop is off to what could be the slowest start in history. But the most jarring fact is that the lag appears to be at its worst in the top-producing state, Kansas, which brings the intended acreage — and thus production potential — under […] Read more
Markets were surprised by the latest optimistic yield expectations for corn and soy from USDA
Farmers, traders, and analysts alike were left shocked after the U.S. Department of Agriculture published its optimistic corn and soybean yields earlier this month, though the market’s narrow expectations going into the Aug. 10 report may carry some of the blame. Analysts were looking for USDA to lower the U.S. corn yield to 166.2 bushels […] Read more
Localized storms are making widely used weather models less meaningful to the market
Rain has been falling across the U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt this month but crop ratings have been low or declining, a sign that some farmers may be getting too much moisture while others have parched fields. Because summer storms have been so localized, the two leading weather models used by traders may be little […] Read more
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