It’s going to take something significant to spark a meaningful price rally at this point
Wheat traders breathed a sigh of relief in early March as Chicago futures rose, possibly signalling that the market is at least temporarily satisfied with recent contract lows. Speculators have piled into the short side of the wheat market in recent weeks, likely limiting further price falls. But bigger global crops on tap for 2019 […] Read more
Funds sold their entire CBOT corn long position undetected during U.S. govt. shutdown
Within the span of six weeks, commodity funds dumped bullish bets in Chicago-traded corn futures and options without the market’s knowledge. Market participants were under the impression that speculators closed out January relatively optimistic toward the grains. However, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirmed otherwise on Feb. 19. Hedge funds and […] Read more
This could cause concern for China that is doubly dependent on the country as trade relations with the U.S. have been frosty
Brazil has harvested two enormous soybean crops in a row and will likely make it a third straight in 2019, but the volume might not be as big as market participants were initially expecting and this could be of particular concern for the top customer. Brazil has helped pad supplies in No. 1 buyer, China, […] Read more
Investor sentiment has clearly shifted in the past 12 months
Speculators rang in 2019 with a much less pessimistic take on Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds than a year earlier, though trade tensions and the lapse in U.S. government data are providing the market with plenty of uncertainty. As of Jan. 2, trade sources suggest that commodity funds held a very slight combined net long position […] Read more
USDA long-range reports can give us an inkling of what to expect even before the seed is booked
It might be comically early to start debating yield scenarios for a crop that is still several months away from planting, but the U.S. government’s early projections for 2019 and beyond hold some interesting ideas for the years ahead. Each February, the U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its long-term projections that provide a single representative […] Read more
Will the U.S.-China trade war end up worthwhile for U.S. soybeans?
China’s absence from the U.S. soybean market has put tremendous pressure on both soybean growers and Chicago-traded soybean futures over the last several months. But the United States’ new trade pact with Mexico and Canada may offer some hope for a similar outcome with major U.S. trade partner China. The United States and Canada reached […] Read more
Longer term the outlook for the Chinese market gets very hazy
Market analysts have been trying to gauge China’s forward bean usage as it remains locked in a tit-for-tat tariff dispute with the United States, and the conflict has prompted threats from the East Asian country to severely reduce or ban U.S. bean imports. The future of U.S. soybean trade with China has also been a […] Read more
Wheat is also likely to see the effect of a stampede out of beans
U.S. corn supply is predicted to plunge by 23 per cent over the next year, but the tighter domestic market may be a short-lived phenomenon pending the resolution of the U.S.-China trade war. The world’s two largest economies have been embroiled in a trade battle in which Beijing hit U.S. soybeans with a 25 per […] Read more
Trade uncertainty is souring investors’ views of grain markets
Speculators spent the month of June selling Chicago-traded futures and options, specifically corn and soybeans, as if record U.S. crops were already in the bag. But the trade dispute between the United States and China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has driven market uncertainty. It was confirmed in mid-June that both parties would enforce tariffs […] Read more
Chicago-traded soybean futures reached three-week highs May 21 as China appears to be coming back to the U.S. market after a state-wide boycott, but speculative investors seem to be taking a cautious approach. The trade tension between the United States and China, the world’s leading buyer of soybeans, has weighed heavily on agriculture markets ever […] Read more
