Latest articles

Sizable fund shorts still hang over CBOT grain market

Market speculators are looking at ample supplies and sticking with their bets

There is simply too much supply in the world to shake speculators from their tremendously bearish view of Chicago-traded grain futures and options, and their hefty short stance still looms over the market. Combining net positions through Nov. 21 in CBOT corn and wheat, K.C. wheat, and Minneapolis-traded wheat futures and options, money managers hold […] Read more

USDA forecast puts soybeans in uncharted territory

Acreage is up but production down in the latest USDA monthly crop production report

Just when analysts thought they had figured out the pattern in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s U.S. soybean forecasts, the agency’s latest estimate broke form and created even more uncertainty in the market. In its monthly U.S. crop production report on Oct. 19, USDA increased harvested area of the oilseed by 740,000 acres but lowered […] Read more

Winter wheat planting lags in U.S.

The big question is if it’s weather related or a sign of shifting grower intentions

There’s little doubt the planting of the 2018-19 U.S. winter wheat crop is off to what could be the slowest start in history. But the most jarring fact is that the lag appears to be at its worst in the top-producing state, Kansas, which brings the intended acreage — and thus production potential — under […] Read more

Stock market chart on LCD screen. Selective focus.

‘Group think’ let market watchers down

Markets were surprised by the latest optimistic yield expectations for corn and soy from USDA

Farmers, traders, and analysts alike were left shocked after the U.S. Department of Agriculture published its optimistic corn and soybean yields earlier this month, though the market’s narrow expectations going into the Aug. 10 report may carry some of the blame. Analysts were looking for USDA to lower the U.S. corn yield to 166.2 bushels […] Read more

The rain dilemma for U.S. corn, soybeans

Localized storms are making widely used weather models less meaningful to the market

Rain has been falling across the U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt this month but crop ratings have been low or declining, a sign that some farmers may be getting too much moisture while others have parched fields. Because summer storms have been so localized, the two leading weather models used by traders may be little […] Read more

U.S. weather scares funds out of their shorts

Hot and dry conditions throughout much of the U.S. are causing supply concerns

Speculators have turned bullish across all three Chicago and Minneapolis wheat contracts for the first time in over two years. Funds are also buying back gobs of corn and soybean contracts after being record or near-record short in recent weeks. Crops in the United States are extremely sensitive to weather at this time of year. […] Read more

Corn sizzles, then fizzles

A major buyback by speculative funds drove the recent market action

Speculators axed a massive short position in the corn market within 11 days earlier this month. And what do they have now to show for it? Lower prices. Specs, usually hesitant to become buyers in such an oversupplied market, bought nearly one billion bushels of corn in the form of CBOT futures and options – […] Read more

corn plants

Is the corn market ready to rally on U.S. weather worries?

A cold, wet spring is giving way to what looks like a hot and dry summer

Corn futures prices have remained stubbornly low for the past three months despite heavy rain and cold weather complicating planting and early crop development. But the tide may be shifting as the summer is beginning under a warmer and drier regime. Driven partially by mounting U.S. weather concerns, July corn on June 7 broke above […] Read more

China’s wheat hoard masks tightening in global market

Without China’s politically motivated stocks in the equation, supply would actually be tightening

World wheat supply is expected to hit record levels in 2017-18 for the fourth year in a row, but remove China from the equation and next year’s global wheat carry-out would be the lowest in four years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently projected world wheat ending stocks would rise to 258.29 million tonnes in […] Read more