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With the Phase 1 deal in effect and trade relations patched up for the time being, it will certainly raise red flags if China does not start ramping up U.S. soybean purchases in a few months.
Comment, Markets

Further swine fever outbreaks threaten slow growth in China’s soy demand

Market watchers now worry the disease’s latest impact could be worse than it appears

By
China is taking in record amounts of soybeans from the U.S. and Brazil as its hog population recovers from a deadly disease that began nearly three years ago, but import expansion into the next marketing year might be minimal. Additionally, China continues to report new outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF). Many market watchers are
Comment, Op/Ed

Comment: Direct payments to U.S. farmers may dry up under Biden administration

The president-elect seems lukewarm at best towards strings-free payments to farmers

By
Reuters – U.S. farmers will likely see a familiar face at the helm of the Department of Agriculture come January, but the lofty government assistance programs they have got used to could be a thing of the past. President-elect Joe Biden has nominated Tom Vilsack as agriculture secretary, a move seen as safe but welcoming
China is set to have 51 per cent of the world’s wheat in storage by mid-2021.
Comment, Markets

Comment: Wheat market looks beyond record stocks

U.S. and Russian crop woes are causing wheat prices to rally despite expected stockpiles

By
Reuters – Chicago-traded wheat futures have rallied to near six-year highs on strong global demand and unfavourable planting conditions in some major exporters, despite the expectation for record-large stockpiles by mid-2021. Most active CBOT wheat hit US$6.38-1/4 per bushel on Oct. 20, the contract’s highest since Dec. 24, 2014. That is consistent with rising international
Strong soybean performance is primarily what bolstered a record August.
Comment, Markets

Comment: China making good on Phase 1 trade deal

U.S. farm exports to China hit new August record thanks to soybeans

By
U.S. agricultural exports to China had a sluggish start to 2020 relative to the lofty expectations set forth by the Phase 1 trade agreement, but the August value soared substantially over that of the prior months owing to strong soybean shipments. U.S. cotton exports to China hit a 7-1/2-year high in August, while corn shipments
Comment: Interpreting bin-busting yield outlooks for the U.S. corn crop
Comment, Markets

Comment: Interpreting bin-busting yield outlooks for the U.S. corn crop

Lower acres look to be offset by higher production in much of the Corn Belt

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Reuters – The corn supply outlook in the United States got much tighter when it was revealed that farmers this year significantly reduced planted acres from their original plan, but unprecedented yields could load back up the balance sheet. The U.S. Department of Agriculture unveiled its first survey-based yield outlook August 12, and at press
China’s U.S. soy bookings hit six-year highs
Markets, News

China’s U.S. soy bookings hit six-year highs

Average sales seen to other destinations

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China has returned in full force to the U.S. soybean market following the trade dispute that began two years ago, giving American exporters hope that the upcoming shipping season will be their most successful in three years. The Phase 1 trade deal signed at the beginning of this year implied China must book record or
Comment: U.S. soy exports to China at 16-year lows so far in 2020
Comment, Markets

Comment: U.S. soy exports to China at 16-year lows so far in 2020

With prices very competitive however, lofty total-year sales forecasts may still be attainable

By
Reuters – U.S. soybean exports had a dismal April performance and possibly an even worse showing in May as shipments to China remain historically low, but corn exports hit a one-year high in April and improved on those volumes last month. Soybean sales were relatively strong in May and that could continue since the U.S.
Fading U.S. soybean exports threaten to expand stockpiles
Comment, Markets

Fading U.S. soybean exports threaten to expand stockpiles

There’s little sign China will be an enthusiastic buyer in the coming months

By
Reuters – It might take some extraordinary circumstances for U.S. soybean shipments to approach the government’s full-year target. Without an extended turnaround in export demand, U.S. soybean stockpiles could swell to the second-highest levels on record by September. China is likely the only country that could provide the needed lift to U.S. soybeans, but given
Nearly 16 million corn and soybean acres sat idle in 2019 due to the excessive rains.
Comment, Markets

Comment: U.S. farmers ramp up corn, soybean acres

The trend comes amid historically low futures prices

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Reuters – New-crop corn and soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have reached the lowest March levels in more than a decade with just a few weeks until the kickoff of the U.S. planting season. But despite the low prices, U.S. farmers are expected to boost acreage significantly over last year’s levels, which
Weak currency supports Brazilian selling
Grain Markets, Markets

Weak currency supports Brazilian selling

The weak real is seeing real returns for Brazilian growers rising as markets fall

By
Reuters – Brazil might not be harvesting soybeans at a record pace, but farmers there are certainly selling their crops at a much quicker clip than usual due to the weak currency and uncertainty over how the U.S.-China trade deal will affect their business. Brazil typically ships more than half of its annual soybean exports

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